An unnecessary Ontario election won’t help Canada deal with Donald Trump
Ontario Premier Doug Ford for some time about the possibility of a provincial election this spring, if not sooner. Those hints are being reinforced by the pending arrival of $200 to Ontario residents from the province at a cost of nearly $3 billion.
Ford claims that he needs a to deal with the newly inaugurated Donald Trump administration in the United States, specifically its threats to impose on all Canadian imports.
Ford’s Progressive Conservatives already hold a strong majority in the provincial legislature as a result of the election. The province’s opposition parties have made it clear they’re on measures needed to respond to whatever Trump actually does, meaning there’s no obvious need for a provincial election on this issue.
Election not required
Timing is the key issue in this situation. The province would not normally be due for another election for nearly a year and a half — four years from the June 2022 election.
Ford has been musing about the possibility of an early election since . In theory, an early election call might help Ford capitalize in his current lead in and his as a leading spokesperson for Canada in the tariff dispute with the U.S.
An early election could put him ahead of further fallout from the and the .
It could also pre-empt the impact of a variety of earlier decisions by the Ford government that are coming home to roost, ranging from the in the post-secondary education sector, ongoing wider crises in , , affordable () housing and rising .
Perhaps most importantly, it is widely believed Ford wants to go to the polls before a federal election — one that polls suggest the federal Conservatives .
Ontario voters have a record of voting for different parties at the federal and provincial levels, making a Conservative government in Ottawa a potentially unappealing scenario from Ford’s point of view.
Why it’s the wrong time
Beyond the issues of the expense of a premature and unnecessary election, it is difficult to imagine a worse time to call an early vote in Ontario given the need for a fully functioning provincial government to effectively respond to Trump’s threats.
If it’s determined to hold an early vote, the Ford government would probably want an election before a federal campaign begins. The current is scheduled to end March 24. A confidence vote, which the current Liberal government is almost certain to lose regardless of who , will follow shortly.
That will trigger a federal election, which, based on the minimum requirement for a , will occur somewhere in early to mid-May.
This would mean an Ontario election would have to occur before the end of March. Given the minimum period, an election call could come by the end of February. The campaign would then take place mostly in March.
The problem with this timing is that Trump . This would mean that an Ontario election campaign — with all its accompanying distractions of political, media and public attention — would be taking place amid the most crucial moments in dealing the Trump administration’s actions on Canada-U.S. trade.
Running against Trump may seem politically attractive to Ford at the moment. But actually dealing with what Trump does will require the full energy and attention of Ontario’s government, working in conjunction with the federal government and other provinces. Canada cannot afford to have the focus of one of its key provincial leaders diverted into trying to win an unnecessary election at that point.
Cautionary precedent
For Ontario voters, there’s no shortage of taken by the Ford government that require a serious evaluation. But with no pressing constitutional or political rationale, the next two months are precisely the wrong time to trigger that process.
The Ford government may want to reflect on the fate of a high-profile majority government in Ontario that pursued what seemed like a good opportunity for an early election call. In 1990, — and .
Peterson might have some advice for Ford on the wisdom of calling an early election.
By Professor , Faculty of Environmental and Urban Change, 91ɫ
