TORONTO, July 30, 2021 – In exploring what needed to happen to prevent a third wave of COVID-19 in Ontario, 91��ɫ researchers say the same principals apply to preventing a fourth wave – adequate testing, contact tracing and isolation.

“These measures are even more crucial given the predominance of the highly transmissible Delta variant,” says lead researcher Distinguished Research Professor Jianhong Wu of 91��ɫ’s Faculty of Science. “Had there been more testing, contact tracing and isolation after the second wave, Ontario may have been able to avoid a third wave. Now we have a very narrow window in which to prevent a fourth wave.”

The province needs to enhance its testing-to-tracing and tracing-to-quarantine/isolation to avoid a possible fourth wave. This is feasible even with the circulation of the Delta variant.

About 60 per cent of all new infections need to be traced and isolated, while for symptomatic individuals, 65 per cent should be tested and isolated. If only about 45 per cent of symptomatic people are diagnosed, then 75 per cent of new infections would need to be traced and isolated to avoid a fourth wave.

The , “A window of opportunity for intensifying testing and tracing efforts to prevent new COVID-19 outbreaks due to more transmissible variants,” was published in the current issue of the .

About 91��ɫ

91��ɫ��is a modern,��multi-campus, urban university located in Toronto, Ontario. Backed by a diverse group of students, faculty, staff, alumni and partners, we bring a uniquely global perspective to help solve societal challenges, drive positive change and prepare our students for success. 91��ɫ's fully bilingual Glendon Campus is home to��Southern Ontario's Centre of Excellence for French Language and Bilingual��Postsecondary��Education. 91��ɫ’s campuses in Costa Rica and India offer students exceptional transnational learning��opportunities��and innovative programs. Together, we can make things right for our communities, our planet, and our future.

Media contact:

Sandra McLean, 91��ɫ Media Relations, cell 416-272-6317,��sandramc@yorku.ca

The post Can Ontario avoid a fourth wave of COVID-19? appeared first on News@91��ɫ.

TORONTO, April 7, 2021 – A temporary interruption in contact tracing of COVID-19 cases could lead to an irreversible loss of control of the disease even if the pandemic was previously contained, say 91��ɫ researchers in a new study.

After taking overall growth rate and the prevalence of infection into account, this is especially true in regions where the epidemic was thought to be under control. Additionally, if contact tracing is started again after tracing capacity has been exceeded, it is not possible to make up for lost time.

“Contact tracing can detect asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic people rapidly and efficiently to help prevent further transmission, but to be effective, it needs to happen quickly, widely and without interruption following the initial diagnosis of symptomatic infections,” says Distinguished Research Professor , director of the Faculty of Science’s Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics () at 91��ɫ. “While Ontario is in its current lockdown, it’s particularly important that it enhances its contact tracing efforts now to get ahead of the situation before a reopening.”

Contact tracing is a targeted intervention which focuses resources on the particular population at risk – those who have had contact with infected individuals – unlike mass testing, physical distancing, or mass quarantining. This makes it one of the most cost-effective and widely adopted non-pharmaceutical interventions to limit the spread of infectious diseases like COVID-19 when there are no effective treatments or widely available vaccines.

The researchers found that enlarging the tracing window (how many days back contacts are traced) from two up to five days substantially improves the controllability of the epidemic, however, increasing coverage (how many contacts are effectively reached) may impact preventable transmission even more. Along with other social distancing measures, to reduce the average secondary transmission number to below 2.5, tracing only two days backward is not sufficient to control the epidemic if less than 80 per cent of contacts are traced and isolated. A tracing window of five days makes control achievable, but only if the tracing coverage is no less than 50 per cent.

“The effectiveness of contact tracing depends not only on the tracing efforts, but also on the epidemiological properties of the disease. The same contact tracing effort, tracing coverage and length of tracing window, can control an epidemic with low transmissibility, but not an epidemic with high transmissibility, such as with the new COVID-19 variants,” says , a Postdoctoral Fellow of LIAM and the leading author of the study.

Although contact tracing efforts may be sufficient in preventing the epidemic from taking off in some regions, strict physical distancing measures, including partial lockdown, may be eventually unavoidable in regions with higher transmissibility. “At this point, the transmission

rate in some regions, like Toronto and Peel, needs to significantly lessen through physical distancing or vaccination, creating a condition to allow enhanced contact tracing that will have a chance at gaining control,” says Wu.

As for the digital contact tracing COVID-19 app, Wu and Scarabel found that even with an extremely quick diagnosis and tracing, the coverage level required to reach control is likely insufficient, unless significantly more people start using it, and traced individuals are quickly isolated from the transmission chain.

The researchers used an advanced deterministic mathematical model to capture full nonlinear epidemic dynamics in real time. They focused specifically on the suspected secondary cases of an infected individual. The model can help inform public response to emerging epidemics, as different scenarios can be used to see the effects of various non-pharmaceutical interventions.

The research was published today in the journal, .

-30-

91��ɫ��is a modern, multi-campus, urban university located in Toronto, Ontario. Backed by a diverse group of students, faculty, staff, alumni and partners, we bring a uniquely global perspective to help solve societal challenges, drive positive change and prepare our students for success. 91��ɫ's fully bilingual Glendon Campus is home to Southern Ontario's Centre of Excellence for French Language and Bilingual Postsecondary Education. 91��ɫ’s campuses in Costa Rica and India offer students exceptional transnational learning opportunities and innovative programs. Together, we can make things right for our communities, our planet, and our future.��

Media Contact:

Sandra McLean, 91��ɫ Media Relations, 416-272-6317,��sandramc@yorku.ca

The post A break in contact tracing could lead to a loss of control appeared first on News@91��ɫ.

TORONTO, April 7, 2021 – A temporary interruption in contact tracing of COVID-19 cases could lead to an irreversible loss of control of the disease even if the pandemic was previously contained, say 91��ɫ researchers in a new study.

After taking overall growth rate and the prevalence of infection into account, this is especially true in regions where the epidemic was thought to be under control. Additionally, if contact tracing is started again after tracing capacity has been exceeded, it is not possible to make up for lost time.

“Contact tracing can detect asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic people rapidly and efficiently to help prevent further transmission, but to be effective, it needs to happen quickly, widely and without interruption following the initial diagnosis of symptomatic infections,” says Distinguished Research Professor , director of the Faculty of Science’s Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics () at 91��ɫ. “While Ontario is in its current lockdown, it’s particularly important that it enhances its contact tracing efforts now to get ahead of the situation before a reopening.”

Contact tracing is a targeted intervention which focuses resources on the particular population at risk – those who have had contact with infected individuals – unlike mass testing, physical distancing, or mass quarantining. This makes it one of the most cost-effective and widely adopted non-pharmaceutical interventions to limit the spread of infectious diseases like COVID-19 when there are no effective treatments or widely available vaccines.

The researchers found that enlarging the tracing window (how many days back contacts are traced) from two up to five days substantially improves the controllability of the epidemic, however, increasing coverage (how many contacts are effectively reached) may impact preventable transmission even more. Along with other social distancing measures, to reduce the average secondary transmission number to below 2.5, tracing only two days backward is not sufficient to control the epidemic if less than 80 per cent of contacts are traced and isolated. A tracing window of five days makes control achievable, but only if the tracing coverage is no less than 50 per cent.

“The effectiveness of contact tracing depends not only on the tracing efforts, but also on the epidemiological properties of the disease. The same contact tracing effort, tracing coverage and length of tracing window, can control an epidemic with low transmissibility, but not an epidemic with high transmissibility, such as with the new COVID-19 variants,” says , a Postdoctoral Fellow of LIAM and the leading author of the study.

Although contact tracing efforts may be sufficient in preventing the epidemic from taking off in some regions, strict physical distancing measures, including partial lockdown, may be eventually unavoidable in regions with higher transmissibility. “At this point, the transmission

rate in some regions, like Toronto and Peel, needs to significantly lessen through physical distancing or vaccination, creating a condition to allow enhanced contact tracing that will have a chance at gaining control,” says Wu.

As for the digital contact tracing COVID-19 app, Wu and Scarabel found that even with an extremely quick diagnosis and tracing, the coverage level required to reach control is likely insufficient, unless significantly more people start using it, and traced individuals are quickly isolated from the transmission chain.

The researchers used an advanced deterministic mathematical model to capture full nonlinear epidemic dynamics in real time. They focused specifically on the suspected secondary cases of an infected individual. The model can help inform public response to emerging epidemics, as different scenarios can be used to see the effects of various non-pharmaceutical interventions.

The research was published today in the journal, .

-30-

91��ɫ��is a modern, multi-campus, urban university located in Toronto, Ontario. Backed by a diverse group of students, faculty, staff, alumni and partners, we bring a uniquely global perspective to help solve societal challenges, drive positive change and prepare our students for success. 91��ɫ's fully bilingual Glendon Campus is home to Southern Ontario's Centre of Excellence for French Language and Bilingual Postsecondary Education. 91��ɫ’s campuses in Costa Rica and India offer students exceptional transnational learning opportunities and innovative programs. Together, we can make things right for our communities, our planet, and our future.��

Media Contact:

Sandra McLean, 91��ɫ Media Relations, 416-272-6317,��sandramc@yorku.ca

The post A break in contact tracing could lead to a loss of control appeared first on News@91��ɫ.

A new study by 91��ɫ researchers points to accessibility issues and perception of privacy as the biggest obstacles

TORONTO, March 22, 2021 − With rates of COVID-19 continuing to rise, apps like Canada’s COVID Alert app still are not being downloaded by the majority of the population, according to new at 91��ɫ’s . Researchers at the lab, which is affiliated with the Disaster and Emergency Management program and the Dahdaleh Institute for Global Health Research, found that accessibility and inclusion challenges − such as the lack of multilingual functionality on the apps − along with perceptions around privacy, are deterring users from downloading the app.

The DGHH Lab today released 23 recommendations on how to better develop, implement, and regulate digital contact tracing apps so that apps can be improved in ways that are meaningful to users, to increase app uptake, and ultimately, make these apps more effective in the response to COVID-19. This research stems from a previous study they conducted looking at digital technology use during COVID-19.

“Canada’s COVID Alert app is more privacy-centric. However, the perceptions people have – such as that the app is tracking users’ locations or that the data collected is used for other purposes – may not reflect the reality of the situation. That’s why it's important to have clear and transparent communication about how this app works, what this app does, and what privacy issues are actual concerns, in order to combat any misinformation,” says Rebecca Babcock, research coordinator, Digital Global Health & Humanitarianism Lab.

She adds that currently Canada’s COVID Alert app is available only in English and French. “The lack of language options creates an accessibility barrier for some of Canada’s multicultural population. Developers, implementers, and regulators really need to focus their attention on inclusive design to improve uptake.”

Researchers reviewed the use of these types of apps in several countries and found user uptake of these digital contact tracing apps fluctuated greatly around the world, which directly impacted their ability to be useful in the response to COVID-19.�� They identified factors that can influence users to download or not download a digital contact tracing app by focusing on the user, which was identified as a gap.

“Digital contact tracing apps can definitely play a big role in combatting transmission, however, for that to happen, they must be implemented focusing on the needs, wants and fears of the people expected to use these apps. Combined they must be designed to complement the gaps of existing systems they aim to support, from health systems to social systems,” says Jennie Phillips, director, Digital Global Health & Humanitarianism Lab.

Based on a number of factors, such as population, uptake rates, location, etc., researchers selected Scotland, Cyprus, Iceland, Ireland, and South Africa. They reached out to experts and conducted interviews as well as conducted an extensive literature review. The findings were analyzed using a systems approach to understand how people are influenced by individual, community, and system level factors around the world.

Researchers say without understanding users and finding ways to mitigate the risks and amplify the benefits that users find most influential, user uptake cannot be improved.

The research identified eight factors influencing users across countries:

1. Perceptions of Data Collection and Management
2. Sense of Community
3. Communications & Misinformation
4. Accessibility & Inclusion
5. Trust in Public/Private institutions
6. Policy and Governance
7. Response Infrastructure
8. Digital Capability

Researchers Jennie Phillips and Rebecca Babcock��are available for interviews.

91��ɫ��is a modern, multi-campus, urban university located in Toronto, Ontario. Backed by a diverse group of students, faculty, staff, alumni and partners, we bring a uniquely global perspective to help solve societal challenges, drive positive change and prepare our students for success. 91��ɫ's fully bilingual Glendon Campus is home to Southern Ontario's Centre of Excellence for French Language and Bilingual Postsecondary Education. 91��ɫ’s campuses in Costa Rica and India offer students exceptional transnational learning opportunities and innovative programs. Together, we can make things right for our communities, our planet, and our future.��

��

Media Contact:��

Anjum Nayyar, 91��ɫ Media Relations, cell 437 242 1547,��anayyar@yorku.ca

The post ��Why aren’t more people downloading COVID contact tracing apps? appeared first on News@91��ɫ.