Natural Resources Canada has renewed its support for the Energy Modelling Hub (EMH) activities for a further four years beginning, providing $5 million to strengthen Canada鈥檚 capacity for transparent, evidence-based energy, climate and energy transition policy development and planning. The new mandate, Reinforcing Canadian Energy Modelling Capacities: Enhancing Tools and Expertise for Canada鈥檚 Electricity and Renewable Energy Sector, will be headquartered at the University of Calgary and delivered through a four-institution consortium: the University of Calgary, 91亚色, Polytechnique Montr茅al and the University of Victoria.

The four-year project is led by Associate Professor Blake Shaffer from the School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary, Professor Mark Winfield from the Faculty of Environmental and Urban Change at 91亚色, Associate Professor Madeleine McPherson from the Institute for Integrated Energy Systems at the University of Victoria, and Professor Normand Mousseau from the Institut de l鈥櫭﹏ergie Trottier at Polytechnique Montr茅al.

The renewed funding advances NRCan鈥檚 Smart Renewables and Electrification Pathways Program鈥檚 (SREPs鈥�) capacity building objectives. EMH supports these objectives by providing a national platform for enhanced collaboration and convening to connect policymakers, modellers and other stakeholders working on Canada鈥檚 clean-energy transition.

Through three targeted capacity-building activities, EMH addresses the real needs of end-users, fostering inclusivity, generating economic and social benefits, and supporting Canada鈥檚 shift toward a decarbonized, sustainable, affordable, reliable and equitable energy system. This includes strengthening open-source modelling tools, improving access to high-quality open data, and expanding user-centred knowledge sharing and training.

The renewed mandate positions EMH to build a pan-Canadian network of modellers, policymakers and experts working together to guide the transformation of Canada鈥檚 energy systems in the directions of decarbonization and sustainability. By linking analytical capacity across the country, EMH will help bridge the gap between data and policy, ensuring modelling informs responses to the most pressing energy challenges.

鈥淭his announcement demonstrates聽Canada's support for energy modellers as they address challenges and develop new insights on energy technologies and systems that can help Canada unlock the full potential of聽the聽workers, businesses and resources we have right here at home.鈥澛�- Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Tim Hodgson

鈥淭he University of Calgary is proud to serve as the host institution for the Energy Modelling Hub for the next four years. This is an important national institution, and its presence here reflects our longstanding leadership in energy research, policy, and innovation. We look forward to working closely with partners across the country to advance the Hub鈥檚 mission and help shape Canada鈥檚 energy future.鈥� - Associate Professor Blake Shaffer, Department of Economics, University of Calgary

鈥淭he federal government鈥檚 renewed support to the Energy Modelling Hub will reinforce EMH鈥檚 capacity building work in support of evidence-based policy-making around energy, decarbonization, sustainability and energy systems transitions in Canada.鈥� - Professor Mark Winfield, co-chair, Sustainable Sustainable Energy Initiative, Faculty of Environmental and Urban Change, 91亚色

鈥淭he Energy Modelling Hub provides tools and models that are essential to the Institut de l鈥櫭﹏ergie Trottier鈥檚 work at Polytechnique Montr茅al. Future editions of our Canadian Energy Outlook will greatly benefit from the expanding suite of resources now available. Beyond this, the Canadian government鈥檚 support reflects both a recognition of the strength of Canadian expertise and a commitment to amplifying its impact.鈥� - Scientific Director Normand Mousseau, Institut de l鈥櫭﹏ergie Trottier at Polytechnique Montr茅al and Professor at Universit茅 de Montr茅al

鈥淐harting Canadas energy transition is complex; modelling helps by exploring possible pathways and illuminating the most effective decisions. The EMH hosts is Canada's only open-source suite of integrated models, which together enable a comprehensive and transparent conversation about how to move forward. The highly collaborative work at the hub is a catalyst for our transition to a low-carbon, affordable, and reliable energy system.鈥� - Associate Professor Madeleine McPherson, Civil Engineer and associate director, Institute for Integrated Energy Systems at the University of Victoria

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A defining feature of the ongoing federal election campaign has been the of the environment and climate change as top-of-mind issues due to threats by the United States against Canadian sovereignty, security and trade.

But how Canada responds to U.S. President Donald Trump鈥檚 actions will also have profound implications for its future greenhouse gas emissions and its economy.

The current federal election is very different from those held in 2015, 2019 and 2021. In those elections, the environment and climate were central issues. , more than 60 per cent of Canadian voters chose parties (Liberal, NDP, Bloc Qu茅b茅cois and Green) that advocated for strong climate action, including some form of carbon pricing.

The increasing evidence of the consequences of a changing climate had placed the environment and climate change in the minds of Canadians for nearly two decades. The political landscape since then.

The role of inflation

Although Trump鈥檚 second presidency is often cited as the trigger point for a decline of the environment as a top-of-mind concern for Canadians, the a year earlier, in the fall of 2023.

Despite the record wildfire season that summer, the , triggered in large part by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine, moved economic concerns to the forefront of the public鈥檚 mind. Government stimulus programs needed to counter the impacts of the pandemic contributed to inflationary pressures, prompting the to hike interest rates in response, adding to Canadians鈥� economic distress.

Amid high inflation and high interest rates, the Liberal government鈥檚 climate strategies 鈥� especially consumer carbon pricing 鈥� became an easy political target, particularly for a with little apparent concern for the climate challenge.

But even though climate change is no longer top of mind for Canadians, it remains a significant and caused by human activity. And perhaps surprisingly, despite the criticism levelled at the consumer carbon tax, between of non-Conservative leaning voters (those intending to cast their ballots for Liberal, NDP, Bloc and Green candidates) continue to support the concept of carbon pricing.

Focus on fossil fuels

Despite this, many and leaders have responded to Trump鈥檚 actions by focusing on natural resource exports, especially fossil fuels and , to bolster the Canadian economy.

This has been accompanied by environmental review and approval processes for resource extraction and export projects like pipelines, and to expand their subsidization by taxpayers.

Discussions about the climate implications of these initiatives have been noticeably absent. So have conversations about the long-term economic viability and desirability of expanding Canada鈥檚 dependency on resource commodity exports to increasingly uncertain global markets.

On fossil fuels, the and others are predicting that global consumption will peak within the next decade. This will reflect the falling costs of renewable energy, improving energy productivity and the by mid-century.

The peak will likely happen before any new major export infrastructure can be built in Canada, regardless of what review and approval requirements they might be subjected to.

In a world of declining fossil fuel consumption, Canada 鈥� increasingly reliant on high-cost and high-carbon production like and fracked and liquified 鈥� seems more likely to be among the earliest producers to fall than among the last standing. Public investments in new export infrastructure look like dubious propositions in this scenario.

International markets for critical minerals are likely to remain in as the in renewable energy and energy storage accelerates to on costly and difficult-to-access materials.

Mining operations also continue to have substantial environmental impacts with significant implications

Backwards approach

All of this means there must be continued of projects in terms of their implications for climate change, environmental sustainability and reconciliation, as well as their economic viability and potential for taxpayers 鈥� not a further streamlining of review processes.

Falling back on fossil fuels in response to Trump is a fundamentally backwards approach. It ignores the implications of the climate challenge. As recently noted by at least one Canadian , it also overlooks the need to not just diversify Canada鈥檚 markets, but to diversify Canadian products as well.

Canada must design and implement strategies that transform its industries from producers of low-value raw materials into producers of higher-value products and services for a world that must decarbonize and advance sustainability.

As a recently pointed out, climate change remains a real threat to Canadians and their communities. It鈥檚 not going away regardless of what might say.

As they campaign to lead the country, the situation requires more substantive responses from Canada鈥檚 would-be prime ministers than Canadians are getting right now.

By Professor Mark Winfield, Faculty of Environmental and Urban Change, 91亚色

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