TORONTO, Jan. 18, 2024 鈥� The 2022 FIFA World Cup ended with a tight win for Argentina over France on penalties, but it was also a triumph for SARS-CoV-2 with a significant jump in the number of cases, some of which 91亚色 researchers say could have been prevented.

New research published today and led by 91亚色 used the 2022 FIFA World Cup as a case study to help determine the best ways to mitigate virus spread and hospitalizations at mass gatherings in the future. A technique was used to sample initial conditions stemming from possible matches held between visiting teams, which then formed the basis of independent simulations of each game.

The paper, was published in the journal PLOS Computational Biology.

Lead author of the paper, 91亚色 postdoctoral fellow Martin Grunnill, and an academic-industrial collaborative team, including Faculty of Science Distinguished Research Professor , found that pre-travel screenings did little to prevent infections and hospitalizations.

Pre-match screening of spectators and match staff, however, with either a rapid antigen test half a day before or with a reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction聽test one and a half days before a match, was more effective than pre-travel screening. The researchers found doing both pre-travel and pre-match testing had even better outcomes, but what worked best was ensuring all visitors had a COVID-19 vaccination, a second or booster dose, within a few months of departure to the tournament.

鈥淭hat precaution reduced the rate of infection and particularly the rate of hospitalizations,鈥� says Grunnill.

Prior to the FIFA World Cup, COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations were declining in Qatar but began to rise during the tournament peaking at the beginning of the quarter final.

鈥淭he ambitious goal of the partnership research includes developing modelling technologies that can be used to assist in the preparation of major mass gathering events, whether religious or sports related in nature or a major festival,鈥� says Wu. 鈥淲e hope these platforms can be used to provide input into how to help manage respiratory infection risk for the next FIFA World Cup, hosted by North America, and the Olympic Games in Paris this summer.鈥�

Wu points out that even before COVID-19, large events attracting tens of thousands of people spurred the spread of communicable diseases, sometimes globally.

鈥淚n the case of international events like the FIFA World Cup where visitors come from all over the world and return home, there is a higher chance of infections spreading beyond the host country,鈥� says Grunnill.

The work is part of an on-going 91亚色-Sanofi collaborative project, funded by the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada, that aims to developing a generic modelling framework tailored to specific events involving intensive social-economic activities to support preparing those events with minimal risk of disease outbreak and spreading. 

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91亚色鈥檚 call for proposals receives overwhelming response from Africa, Asia and Latin America to create AI solutions to fight new and re-emerging infectious diseases

TORONTO, Sept. 12, 2023 鈥� A 91亚色-led program is helping bolster health care in the Global South by providing more than $5.8 million in funding for 16 projects in as many countries, including polio surveillance in Ethiopia and helping Indigenous communities in the Philippines.

鈥淲e have led the call to strengthen the health-care system in low- and medium-income countries (LMIC) in the Global South for more than a year now,鈥� says 91亚色 Assistant Professor , executive director of the (AI4PEP). Originally from Cameroon, Kong understands the strains faced by health-care systems in LMIC and the importance of southern-led solutions.

鈥淔unding these projects will help strengthen capacity and support prevention, early detection, preparedness, mitigation and control of emerging or re-emerging infectious disease outbreaks in LMIC countries in Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Caribbean and the Middle East, which, as we know, can make their way to every country in the world.鈥�

Incidents of disease outbreaks are expected to increase in severity and frequency as more viruses, bacteria and parasites jump from animals to people.

AI4PEP received $7.25 million in funding from the International Development Research Centre in 2022 to develop a multi-regional, interdisciplinary network to use AI and big data to improve public health preparedness and response, and promote equitable and ethical solutions.

After a recent call for proposals, the team received 221 submissions from 47 countries with 142 of them from Africa, 40 from Asia, 26 from Latin America. The overall program framework centers around a gender, equity, inclusion and decolonization lens.

鈥淎I4PEP at 91亚色 is deepening the understanding of how equitable and responsibly designed artificial intelligence can lead to southern-led solutions to strengthen public health-care systems in the Global South,鈥� says Vinitha Gengatharan, assistant vice-president, global engagement and partnerships. 鈥淭his is just the start of a growing, multi-regional network to improve and strengthen public health preparedness and response to disease outbreaks that can make a real difference in the lives of people.鈥�

The projects are led by universities in collaboration with health-care system stakeholders in 16 regions of the Global South. They include AI and modelling for community-based detection of zoonotic disease with increasing climate change in Senegal; a Foundation for Medical Research-University of Mumbai project; an AI-powered early detection system for communicable respiratory diseases based on integrated data sets at Wits University in South Africa; an Al-Quds University project; and an AI and eco-epidemiology-based early warning systems to improve public health response to mosquito-borne viruses in the Dominican Republic. .

鈥淭he funding for our project, named AutoAI-Pandemics, will enable the development of a cutting-edge and user-friendly platform, driven by responsible artificial intelligence practices, to deal with the challenges of infectious diseases, in particular, control of epidemics and pandemics. Current advances in artificial intelligence have resulted in robust solutions for epidemiological analysis, bioinformatics, and misinformation detection, while actively combating biases and ensuring fairness,鈥� says Professor Andr茅 C. Ponce de Leon F. de Carvalho of the Institute of Mathematics and Computer Sciences, University of S茫o Paulo at S茫o Carlos, Brazil.

鈥淭hanks to this funding, we have the opportunity to contribute to the efforts to fight epidemics and improve human health. By collectively fortifying our defenses against infectious diseases, we can make a lasting impact on global health with increasing equity and equality. We also believe that this research will bring relevant scientific contributions in the areas of artificial intelligence and bioinformatics.鈥�

As diseases increasingly spreading from animals to people with continued human encroachment into natural landscapes, AI4PEP鈥檚 One Health concept is designed to recognize and respond to the reality that human health is interdependent with the health of animals and the environment. Climate change is another huge factor.

鈥淐limate change is exacerbating existing health and social inequities by increasing the vulnerability of climate hotspots to the emergence and re-emergence of many infectious diseases, such as malaria, dengue fever and zika,鈥� says Associate Professor of the Faculty of Liberal Arts and Professional Studies. 鈥淭his is a huge initiative, but with the support of many of 91亚色鈥檚 research institutes, including the 91亚色 Emergency Mitigation, Engagement, Response and Governance Institute directed by Distinguished Research Professor , as well as CIFAL and the Dahdaleh Institute for Global Health Research, I believe we can all collaborate with this exceptional global network to respond to the increasing threat of infectious diseases.鈥�

AI solutions and data science approaches are increasingly being used across the globe to identify risks, conduct predictive modelling, and provide evidence-based recommendations for public health policy and action. 

鈥淩esponding to the complex nature of these interactions in a timely way requires the ability to analyze large data sets across multiple sectors,鈥� says Kong of the Faculty of Science and director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium.

But even with the promised good of these innovative tools to improve public health outcomes, the team recognizes there are important ethical, legal, and social implications that, if not appropriately managed and governed, can translate into significant risks to individuals and populations. AI4PEP intends to deepen the understanding of designing responsible AI solutions.

鈥淩esponsible AI entails intentional design to enhance health equity and gender equality and avoid amplifying existing inequalities and biases. We are working toward the realization of the United Nation鈥檚 Sustainable Development Goals, in particular, three and five 鈥� good health and well-being, and gender equality,鈥� says Kong. 鈥淐olonialism and gendered oppression have enduring effects, disproportionately impacting the health and quality of life of formerly colonized people and vulnerable groups, including women, gender non-conforming people, people with disabilities, rural communities, and low-income households.鈥�

Projects within the initiative will work closely with governments, public health agencies, civil society and others to generate new knowledge and collaborations to inform practice and policies at subnational, national, regional and global levels.聽

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Five-year project aimed at ensuring vulnerable and at-risk populations are included in disease outbreak management and policies

TORONTO, Sept. 7, 2022 鈥� At a time when the risk of emerging or re-emerging infectious diseases (ERIDs) is increasing, an international team led by 91亚色 successfully competed to receive a CAD7.25 million grant from the  (IDRC) to help tackle the issue. This grant will enable the research team to work alongside countries in the Global South to develop equitable and responsible artificial intelligence (AI) solutions and big data approaches to improve public health outcomes.

The five-year project, Global South Artificial Intelligence for Pandemic and Epidemic Preparedness and Response Network, is borne out of the promise of AI solutions across the Global South to improve the health system response to infectious disease outbreaks, and the commensurate need to examine important ethical, legal and social implications of these solutions on populations most susceptible to disease and compromised overall well-being.

Led by 91亚色 Assistant Professor  of the Faculty of Science, this project will support prevention, early detection, preparedness, mitigation and control of emerging or re-emerging infectious disease outbreaks in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Middle East and North Africa.

"91亚色 is honoured to have this opportunity to create positive change by fostering more equitable and responsible approaches to complex health-care needs through the ethical use of artificial intelligence,鈥� says 91亚色 President and Vice-Chancellor Rhonda Lenton. 鈥淭his project will help us strengthen our impact on several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, including good health and well-being, as well as gender equality and partnerships. I'd like to thank IDRC for their ongoing support of 91亚色's commitment to collaboratively addressing pressing global issues and congratulate Jude Kong on all his work in this area."

Globally, as humans continue to encroach on animal habitats and climate change worsens, incidents of disease outbreaks are expected to increase in severity and frequency 鈥� often stemming from viruses, bacteria and parasites that jump from animals to people. These outbreaks can have calamitous consequences which cascade across socio-economic boundaries, particularly affecting vulnerable populations, magnifying social inequities, and putting pressure on weak health-care systems, which further exacerbate underlying inequities and disparities.

鈥淎s the world continues to grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic, alongside outbreaks such as Ebola and hMPXV, previously known as monkeypox, IDRC鈥檚 commitment to supporting innovative and locally championed solutions from LMICs is renewed and further deepened," says IDRC President Jean Lebel. "We are delighted to build on IDRC鈥檚 deep experience in using AI to solve pressing social and economic challenges by supporting the team at 91亚色 in funding thought leaders in the LMICs to develop, use and scale responsible AI solutions to strengthen health systems. This collaborative effort will foreground AI applications that are ethical, respect privacy, and support gender equality and inclusive benefits across low-resource settings.鈥�

The project will develop a diverse, multi-regional and interdisciplinary network of partners and teams to help address gaps in knowledge, capacities and solutions, and better understand how AI can improve public health preparedness and response. It will promote southern-led equitable and ethical use of AI and big data to improve public health preparedness and response, identify risks, conduct predictive modelling and provide evidence-based recommendations for public health policy and action.

"It is important to design, manage and govern AI and big data approaches using a health-equity and gender-equality lens to avoid amplifying existing inequalities leading to the possibility of significant harm rather than tremendous benefits," says Kong, the project鈥檚 executive director and director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and  Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC).

The goal is to ensure vulnerable and at-risk populations are included in disease outbreak management and policies, including racialized visible minorities, women, geographically isolated individuals, Indigenous communities, migrants and refugees, unhoused people and the socio-economically underserved. COVID-19 has underlined the need for timely, accurate, and reliable data to inform evidence-based public health decision-making.

"AI techniques have developed rapidly over the last decade and the ability to store large data sets has led to novel methods of analysis, allowing for modelling predictions on a scale that was previously not possible,鈥� says Kong. "ERIDs present global challenges, and as such, international communication and shared strategies, which build on varying types of expertise, are required to successfully address them. This project is a small step in that direction."

PHOTOS: Jude Kong 鈥� horizontal & vertical

VIDEOS: Building capacity to tackle emerging or re-emerging infectious diseases in the Global South - Project will build a network and use AI and big data to fight against infectious diseases - 

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91亚色 is a modern, multi-campus, urban university located in Toronto, Ontario. Backed by a diverse group of students, faculty, staff, alumni and partners, we bring a uniquely global perspective to help solve societal challenges, drive positive change and prepare our students for success. 91亚色's fully bilingual Glendon Campus is home to Southern Ontario's Centre of Excellence for French Language and Bilingual Postsecondary Education. 91亚色鈥檚 campuses in Costa Rica and India offer students exceptional transnational learning opportunities and innovative programs. Together, we can make things right for our communities, our planet, and our future. 

As part of Canada鈥檚 foreign affairs and development efforts, the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) champions and funds research and innovation within and alongside developing regions to drive global change. We invest in high-quality research in developing countries, share knowledge with researchers and policymakers for greater uptake and use, and mobilize our global alliances to build a more sustainable and inclusive world.

Media Contacts:

Sandra McLean, 91亚色 Media Relations, 416-272-6317, sandramc@yorku.ca

Steven Morris, IDRC Media Relations, 613-696-2011, smorris@idrc.ca

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TORONTO, Aug. 24, 2022 鈥� Lower-to-middle-income countries still struggle with high unemployment rates after COVID-19 lockdowns and economic restrictions, unlike higher-income countries such as Canada, finds a new study led by 91亚色 with the University of Witwatersrand in Johannesburg.

This is opposite from the 2008-2009 global economic crisis when higher-income countries suffered more from the recession than lower-income countries.

The study used Twitter sentiments to help compare macroeconomic factors including unemployment and inflation across Nigeria, South Africa and Canada representing lower-middle, upper-middle and high-income countries respectively.

They found the unemployment rate increased for all three countries at the beginning of the pandemic, however, Canada was able to control the rate after the first couple of months unlike Nigeria and South Africa, where they continue to struggle with high unemployment.

鈥淭his indicates how vulnerable lower-middle income countries are to lockdowns and economic limitations, bearing a greater loss during the COVID-19 pandemic than higher income countries,鈥� says 91亚色 Assistant Professor , the study鈥檚 corresponding author and director of the Africa-Canada AI & Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC).

Before COVID-19, lockdowns and economic restrictions, Nigeria鈥檚 unemployment rate was lower than South Africa鈥檚, while the inflation rate of South Africa was lower than Nigeria. During the pandemic, however, unemployment and inflation rates in Nigeria have increased more than Canada and South Africa.

Now the inflation rate is increasing in all three, especially in Canada and Nigeria, which has experienced both high unemployment and high inflation throughout the pandemic.

鈥淭he COVID-19 crisis has affected all income country groups. The burden, however, is much heavier on lower income classes. Coming back from this complexity will be difficult, especially for middle-income countries,鈥� says study co-author Professor , member of the Gauteng Premier COVID-19 Advisory Committee in charge of modelling from the University of Witwatersrand and iThemba LABS in South Africa and co-president of ACADIC. Gauteng is the most populous province in South Africa and hosts Johannesburg and Pretoria.

鈥淭he management of the COVID-19 pandemic taught us about the importance of data to enact evidence-based decisions. The way policymakers view data has changed greatly as a result. We are looking forward to the use of more data in dealing with societal problems,鈥� says Mduduzi Mbada, acting director general of the Gauteng Province.

Although South Africa鈥檚 inflation rate is still comparable to pre-pandemic levels, any policies put in place to deal with high unemployment are expected to increase the inflation rate. Canada's unemployment rate remains good, but it is now seeing it is highest inflation rate in the last 15 years, which may have been brought on in part by the decision to provide the Canada Emergency Response Benefit and Employment Insurance to the employees who lost their jobs because of COVID-19.

Part of what makes this study unique is the authors use of different machine learning algorithms to estimate the monthly unemployment rates for Nigeria and South Africa using unconventional data such as Twitter sentiment and Google Trends data. Monthly inflation data was available for all three countries, but not monthly unemployment data for South Africa and Nigeria.

Social media and social networks, such as Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Instagram, Snapchat, Pinterest, and Reddit, are filled with real-time information, which is stored electronically and often accessible.

鈥淭hey are well-posed to revolutionize the manner and the speed at which especially difficult to get infectious disease data is made available,鈥� says Kong. 鈥淒ata used to inform infectious disease models usually comes from classical surveillance systems, but they suffer from several shortcomings, including severe time lags and a lack of spatial resolution. They are also costly.鈥�

Data from country-specific Twitter can be used to better understand concerns and sentiments around the macroeconomic situations at the local level 鈥� potentially leading to more targeted and publicly acceptable policies based on social media content.

鈥淪ocial media can also provide data on behaviours and outcomes related to vaccine or drug use, including drug-related adverse events, complementing conventional vaccine and pharmaco-vigilance approaches, in which the tracking of vaccine- and drug-related adverse events mainly relies on passive reporting by physicians,鈥� says Mellado.

Their richness in text-based data in the form of posts and comments allows researchers to identify popular topics and assess public sentiment. This can help inform decision-makers and policymakers and allow for a better understanding of concerns and worries about macroeconomics at the local level.

The paper, , was published today in the journal PLOS ONE.

The study is part of the , a multidisciplinary, multi-organization initiative, with funding from Canada鈥檚  and the , and with project support from ,  and .

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91亚色 is a modern, multi-campus, urban university located in Toronto, Ontario. Backed by a diverse group of students, faculty, staff, alumni and partners, we bring a uniquely global perspective to help solve societal challenges, drive positive change and prepare our students for success. 91亚色's fully bilingual Glendon Campus is home to Southern Ontario's Centre of Excellence for French Language and Bilingual Postsecondary Education. 91亚色鈥檚 campuses in Costa Rica and India offer students exceptional transnational learning opportunities and innovative programs. Together, we can make things right for our communities, our planet, and our future. 

Media Contact:Sandra McLean, 91亚色 Media Relations, 416-272-6317, sandramc@yorku.ca

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