TORONTO, July 22, 2025 – Earth Overshoot Day (July 24) is more than a week early this year resulting from humanity’s growing ecological footprint amid trade wars and tariffs, which play a potential role in the ecological footprint of Canada and many others, says , director of the  in 91ŃÇɫ’s Faculty of Environmental and Urban Change.

Trade can enable – and mask – the extent to which countries depend upon others for food and natural resources, says Miller, who is available to speak with media about Earth Overshoot Day and what it means for Ontario and the rest of Canada, and the world.

Researchers at 91ŃÇÉ« and the University of Iceland measured the “biocapacity” of all countries’ lands and waters, and how much of it was traded to support the ecological footprint of people in other countries. For example, Canadian forests, more than some 350 times the City of Toronto, were used to support the net imports of softwood lumber by the United States in recent years.

Trade patterns have changed over the years with some countries, such as Canada, exporting far more than they consume or in the case of Italy, importing more than they export, and these patterns could be changing further in this country as interprovincial trading ramps up.

The effect on each country’s ecological footprint can be seen in the most recent data from , including estimates for how well Canada fares. Canada uses a significantly larger ecological footprint for production than consumption.

“Humanity is using more resources than the Earth can regenerate in a year, and it has been doing so for the last half a century,” says Miller. “The amount we produce, consume and trade continues to increase as we use more resources.”

Close to one third of what the world produces today is not consumed domestically, but instead exported elsewhere, more than double what it was in 1961. Since this time, this amount has grown with only temporary small decreases following world financial crises and the pandemic.

Miller leads a team of researchers and graduate students to produce the  for the , a Canadian not-for-profit organization.

The latest dataset tracks ecological footprint and biocapacity at national and global levels, as well as individually, for 244 countries and territories on a national and trade basis, from 1961 to 2024. It also breaks it down by component, measuring production, imports and exports – trade – and consumption (imports minus exports).

There is a reliable timeline of data for 191 of those countries that allows researchers to see trends over time.

“Using this data allows us to generate the footprint for the national accounts but they also allow us to analyse trends in production and also trade, which has been in the news a lot lately,” says Kiona Lo, senior data analyst, International Ecological Footprint Learning Lab (IEFLL).

Ecological Footprint is the area of land and water people use to grow food and harvest renewable materials to sustain them, in addition to the area occupied by settlements and infrastructure and the area of forests needed to sequester human-generated carbon emissions. Biocapacity is a measure of the ecological potential of an area and includes fishing grounds, built-up land, such as buildings, houses, roads and other infrastructure, cropland, grazing land, and forest biocapacity (the forests’ capacity to supply forest products or to absorb carbon).

“Looking ahead 25 years, the year 2050 is significant as that’s when most of the countries in the world have committed to reaching net zero emissions. To achieve net zero emissions, and end overshoot, each country will need to have its ecological footprint within its biocapacity. That means by 2050 the amount of carbon emissions produced by burning fossil fuels, for example, should be no greater that what can be sequestered by the lands and waters of the planet,” says Miller.

Although the data shows consumption has slowed worldwide, it has still reached the highest ecological footprint since data keeping began.

“It raises the question of what level of reduction in ecological footprint is needed to achieve that worldwide. It’s a 2.1 per cent annual reduction in the world’s ecological footprint for the next 25 years. If we don’t change the current trajectory, it will be a significant challenge to reach the net zero emissions goal.”

Currently, the biocapacity of almost 1.8 Earths would be needed to sustain humanity’s ecological footprint.

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If the United States imposes 25 per cent tariffs on exports from Canada, nearly all economists agree a recession is inevitable. Estimates are that between to jobs are at risk.

Based on previous recessions, the and stay stuck at that level for some time.

Adding insult to injury, are covered by employer-sponsored drug plans, which means that when these workers get laid off, they also lose their health benefits, including prescription drug insurance tied to their jobs.

Affordability of prescription drugs

During the COVID-19 pandemic, , about one-fifth of the population reported not having insurance to cover prescription medications. This coincided with a soaring unemployment rate that in May 2020. The problem of not having insurance for prescription medications was among immigrants and racialized people. These are the same groups of people that will be at the highest risk of any recession-linked job losses.

Unsurprisingly, spent more than $500 out-of-pocket in 2022 on prescription drugs compared to 10 per cent for those with insurance. Canadians in the in absolute terms than those in the highest income quintile ($296 versus $268) in 2009, and it’s unlikely this disparity has significantly changed.

Already there are estimates that the leads to 370 to 640 premature deaths due to ischemic heart disease, 550 to 670 premature deaths from all causes among people 55-64 years of age and avoidable deterioration in health status in 70,000 people age 55 and over.

When Canadians must choose between buying prescription drugs and paying for food and rent, it’s often no contest; patients skip their medications and suffer the consequences. The result is .

Tariffs and drug prices

Added to the threat of losing prescription drug coverage with job loss is the very real possibility that drug prices will increase. of the active pharmaceutical ingredients that go into the medicines that North Americans take originate in China. U.S President Donald Trump has now threatened to slap U.S. tariffs on that were previously exempt.

Canada already annually in prescription drugs from the U.S. To the extent that tariffed drugs go from China to the U.S. to Canada, the cost of both publicly and privately funded drug plans will increase.

Those people at the bottom of the income scale who pay out-of-pocket — and can least afford to pay more — will be saddled with those higher prices. If Canada follows the U.S. in imposing tariffs on drugs made in China, , then the price of generic drugs made in Canada from Chinese ingredients will also rise.

We can hope that any tariffs — on Canada or China — will be only temporary and we can avoid the ongoing effects on both access to prescription drugs and their price. But given Trump’s volatility and unpredictability, we can’t rely on that outcome.

With the passage in October 2024 of Canada’s new Pharmacare Act, the government of Canada committed to “.” We need to expand Canada’s federal pharmacare plan to cover all Canadians for all medically necessary drugs. Indeed, the need has never been as acute.

So far, have signed agreements with the federal government to cover contraceptives and diabetes drugs and devices — the only products currently covered under Bill C-64. The remaining provinces and territories urgently need to sign on. Prime Minister must decisively commit to expanding the range of drugs that is covered by pharmacare.

All the provincial, territorial and federal leaders have . Expanding pharmacare is part of that protection.

By Professor Emeritus of Health Policy and Management, 91ŃÇÉ«

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