The CCDM 2021 China-Canada Symposium on Modelling, Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases was hosted by Northeast Normal University and co-organized by the Center for Mathematical Bioscience and the Chinese Society of Mathematical Biology.

The goal of the event was to understand worldwide challenges and cutting-edge developments related to mathematical modelling of infectious diseases, and to share the timely research findings and experiences. It also provided an excellent experiential education opportunity for young researchers and students from China and Canada to interact with leading modellers and get hands-on research experience.

鈥淢athematical models have played an important role in understanding disease transmission and informing policy-making for public health,鈥� said Faculty of Science Professor Huaiping Zhu, who directs CCDM and served as the scientific co-chair for the symposium. 鈥淭he symposium this year looked at how non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccination strategies, and social and environmental determinants affect transmission, and how data-driven mathematical modelling contributes to the prevention, mitigation and control of COVID-19. It was another successful international collaboration of CDM during the pandemic.鈥�

A big focus of the symposium was on modelling COVID-19 infection and immunity, transmission, vaccination and other public health strategies; however, mosquito-borne diseases like West Nile virus and dengue fever, and other infectious diseases like HIV and tuberculosis, were also discussed. Distinguished lectures on the first two days of the symposium were organized for young researchers and graduate students and focused on reflections and lessons related to COVID-19. The other invited talks were presentations of recent research findings.

The 91亚色 faculty involved in the symposium were: CCDM Communications Director and Professor聽Jane Heffernan聽of the Faculty of Science; and CCDM members and professors聽Marina Freire-Gormaly聽from the Lassonde School of Engineering, and聽Jude Dzevela Kong,听Iain Moyles听补苍诲听Carly Rozins, all from the Faculty of Science, with each presenting talks at the event. Additionally, 91亚色 postdoctoral Fellow聽Juan Li, also from CCDM, participated in a panel discussion. 91亚色 postdoctoral Fellows and CCDM members聽Elena Aruffo聽and PhD student聽Pei Yuan聽served on the supporting committee. Twelve other CCDM Canadian network members also presented at the meeting.

Courtesy of YFile.

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Knowing the answer could help in the development of mosquito density and control strategies聽as well as聽improvements to the current surveillance system for West Nile virus and other vector-borne diseases that may emerge, not only in Ontario, but across the country. It could also lead to a real-time warning system and better disease management by public health agencies.

Recently awarded a $100,000 research grant from the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC), Zhu will conduct a two-year research project, "Modeling and Risk Assessment of West Nile Virus Transmission Under Global Warming", as part of PHAC鈥檚 Pilot Infectious Disease Impact & Response Systems Program and its Clean Air Agenda. The objective is to conduct data mining and analysis, develop models for expected mosquito density given certain meteorological and environmental conditions, and聽establish a set of threshold conditions and criteria that are likely to be present before and during an outbreak.

Left: Huaiping Zhu

鈥淧art of the pilot project is related to seeing how climate change will affect the virus in Ontario,鈥� says , a professor in 91亚色鈥檚 Department of Mathematics & Statistics. Warmer weather makes a more conducive environment for mosquito breeding and virus incubation, and that holds true for other vectors as well. With global warming, mosquitoes are likely to expand their range and spread the virus into new areas.

In Ontario, there have been two outbreaks of the West Nile virus 鈥撀爋ne in 2003 and another in 2007. The curious thing about those two outbreaks, says Zhu, is 鈥渨e didn鈥檛 have the maximum amount of mosquitoes in those years.鈥� It seems counterintuitive that the outbreaks would occur during times when mosquitoes were not at peak levels. That, he says, may indicate that temperature and precipitation play a larger role in driving the spread of the disease than previously thought.

Zhu has the West Nile virus incidence data from the Ministry of Health & Long Term Care, the study鈥檚 collaborator, as well as the data on the temperature and amount of precipitation in Peel Region in Ontario since 2002. The first case of West Nile virus appeared in Ontario in 2001, with surveillance data collecting beginning the following year. With the data, Zhu and his research team can create models to assess the most likely scenario of聽when incidents of West Nile virus will surge. Once they have an idea of what is happening in Peel Region, they hope to expand the research to all of Ontario and eventually Canada. Part of the difficulty will be the narrow time聽frame Zhu has to work with each year 鈥撀�16 weeks when mosquitoes are active in Ontario.

The preparation of the data has already been done using 91亚色鈥檚 Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems (LAMPS) as part of Zhu鈥檚 2007 Ministry of Research & Innovation research project, "Modeling, Surveillance, Prediction and Control of West Nile Virus in Ontario". LAMPS is a high-power parallel computing lab in the Department of Mathematics & Statistics, which Zhu, along with 91亚色 Professors Steven Wang and Zijiang Yang, set up using a $250,045 grant from the Canada Foundation for Innovation and a matching grant from the Ontario Innovation Trust.

Zhu聽now needs to design models to plug the data into, which will hopefully tell him more about how the virus is spread to birds and the optimum temperature and amount of precipitation needed for an outbreak to occur. Another, part of the equation is mosquito reproduction and how that fluctuates with the weather. Then the information will need to be analyzed.

The whole idea, says Zhu, is to discover 鈥渨hat are the conditions that are needed to cause the West Nile virus.鈥� To do this, it鈥檚 imperative to understand how the climate influences the host. 鈥淥nly when this is clear, can we go on from there,鈥� he says. Then they can begin to understand some of the other variables, such as how different landscapes affect mosquitoes across the country, what their preferred habitat is and whether it is true for all species of mosquito, and how聽the rate of evaporation plays into the equations.

鈥淔or that part it is more complicated,鈥� says Zhu. 鈥淪o depending on the results from the first part, we will know if it will be possible to develop it into a larger project taking into account those other factors.鈥�

Although West Nile virus was first isolated in Uganda in 1937, it has progressively spread to Egypt, Israel, South Africa, Europe and North America.

By Sandra McLean, YFile writer

Reprinted courtesy of YFile, 91亚色鈥檚 daily e-bulletin.

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