Official estimates suggest 10,000 people have died, although the police chief of the hard-hit Miyagi prefecture said this week he expects the toll to exceed that in his region alone. Official numbers released Wednesday confirm 4,314 deaths and 8,606 still missing. The National Post’s Aileen Donnelly asked , professor in 91ŃÇɫ’s Disaster & Emergency Management Program, how death tolls are estimated and recorded after a catastrophe and why the figures vary.

Q: How are death toll estimates determined?

A: Estimates come through computer models, or through expert judgment. In Japan they have a system called the National Disaster Information System that has all the information about population and infrastructure in different parts of the country. As soon as something happens, they can run the model and figure out how much damage and how many potential losses they might have…. As time goes on, the model could become better by receiving actual or real information, for example, the exact magnitude of the earthquake. When [computer modelling] is not available, like in developing countries, what they do is they rely on expert judgment, [which] is not as accurate.

Q: How do experts estimate deaths without a computer model?

A: Rapid assessment is usually based on several factors: the population in the area that has been impacted and the damage or loss ratio for different earthquake magnitudes. This is a ratio they use for the number of casualties per different [earthquake] magnitudes in different physical environments. In Japan, another factor they often use is a ratio of number of fatalities to number of injured people. [The ratio there] is about 45, which means for every 45 injured people, you will have about one dead person…. These are the factors experts use. These are based on past experience, the existing population number and the building type and structure they have in the area. [Experts] might not need to go into the field to figure out how many people have been killed. They usually use the knowledge that they have about the area. But, by going there, it helps to make the estimate closer to the actual number.

Q: Why do you think the Japanese government has avoided releasing estimates?

A: Having an accurate estimation of dead people is not going to do a lot at this point. And that is probably why [the government is sticking] with the actual [count of] bodies. From an emergency management point of view, we look for the survivors and find out what their needs are and how we can help them…. I think people are cautious about providing numbers [now] because it’s not only an earthquake, it’s not only a tsunami, it’s a combination of different hazards hitting the country at the same time. Plus, we have the evacuation going on for the nuclear issues.

Posted by Elizabeth Monier-Williams, research communications officer, with files courtesy of YFile – 91ŃÇɫ’s daily e-bulletin.

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The seminar, being held one year after the earthquake, will take place Monday, Jan. 10, from 9am to 5pm, in the Harry Crowe Room, 109 Atkinson Building, Keele campus. It is hosted by 91ŃÇɫ’s School of Administrative Studies Disaster & Emergency Management Program in the Faculty of Liberal Arts & Professional Studies in collaboration with .

Right: The earthquake in Haiti caused widespread damage. Photo by Marco Dormino of the United Nations

It will look at what lessons can be learned from the Haiti earthquake and how societal resilience, humanitarian response and the handling of similar future events can be improved. The Haiti earthquake presented a special challenge for first-response practitioners, emergency managers, researchers, educators and those responsible for capacity building because of its setting, the scale of the initial event and its impact on a particularly vulnerable urbanized area of a fragile state.

Michael Morton of Emergency Management Ontario and Jeff Noel, a logistical officer with the Salvation Army, will discuss first response, search and rescue, emergency operations coordination, mobilization and logistical issues as part of the first panel.

In the second panel, Jean Claude Louis of Panos Canada and the Caribbean will join Heather Leson of Crisis Camp Toronto and Ken Kidd of the Toronto Star in looking at the “Role of the Local, National and International Media; Communication Challenges; Reality, Myths and Perception Issues”.

John Coo of Green Cross Canada will discuss the topic of “Environmental, Critical Services, Health and Sanitation Issues, Urban Management and Built Environment Challenges” in the third panel.

In the fourth panel, the topic of “Managing the Transition and Recovery, Coping with the Displaced/Refugees, Rehabilitation and Recovery Issues” will be tackled Mike Weickert of World Vision Canada and Stephen Evans, associate chair of the University of Waterloo’s Earth & Environmental Sciences.

For more information or to register, visit seminar website or e-mail haiti@yorku.ca.

Republished courtesy of YFile– 91ŃÇɫ’s daily e-bulletin

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