Title: Disaster and Health Emergency Urban Systemic Risk (DHEUSeR) Transformation Cluster
Funding Agency: DHEUSeR (Disaster and Health Emergency Urban Systemic Risk Transformation Cluster)
Goal: To develop interdisciplinary methods and digital tools to assess and mitigate the impact of solar storms on power systems, enhancing infrastructure resilience and public safety.

Project Summary

Complex hazards and systemic vulnerabilities are converging, leading to disruptive disaster and health emergency events that can escalate in frequency and severity while reverberating and cascading across multiple scales. The idea of systemic risk has been on the global health, financial crisis and sustainability agenda since the turn of the century. However, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic highlights the urgent need and demand for a transformative approach to the interconnected and systemic factors and processes in order to safeguard and enhance health and sustainability in urban contexts. Systemic risk events are predominantly urban, and urban demographic, socioeconomic, technological and environmental forces play a decisive role in defining vulnerability and inequity.

Transformative changes are needed in concepts, models, policy, governance, and operational tools to identify and manage systemic risks of disaster and health emergencies in urban contexts. "Disaster and Health Emergency Urban Systemic Risk (DHEUSeR) Transformation Cluster” responds to this set of needs.

Key Research Areas

Thematic areas:

• I. Risk Analysis: Identification, Monitoring, Forecasting, Modelling and Measurements
• II. Social, Psychological, and Behavioural Dimensions:
• III. Policy, Ethics, and Society
• IV. Risk Transferring, Sharing and Financing V.Digital Tools and Platforms:
• VI. Scenario and Simulation Drills
• VII. Governance, Civil Society Action Strategy: Equity-Plus Networks; Transformative Change workshops. 

Subprojects include:

• Risk Transferring, Sharing & Financing - Leads: Ida Ferrara and Eduard Furman (Theme IV)
• Disasters and Health Emergency Management - Policy and Ethics - Leads: Jennifer Spinney and Eric Kennedy (Themes II & III)
• Computational Methods for Mitigation of Solar Storm Effects - Leads: Afshin Rezaei-Zare and Maleknaz Nayebi (Themes V & VI)
• Disaster & Emergency Operations and Management Modeling, Series Game, and Exercise - Leads: Ali Asgary and Jianhong Wu (Theme VI)

Key Contributors

Principal Investigator: Professor Jianhong Wu
Co- Principal Investigator: Dr. Afshin Rezaei-Zare

Funding and Resources

• NSERC Alliance – Mitacs
• SSHRC PEG
• Ontario Wildfire Program
• Fields-Sanofi Collaboration (Fields Institute)
• NSERC Alliance (separate from Mitacs)

Impact and Future Goals

To develop advanced computational tools and methods that assess the impact of solar storms on power systems—specifically focusing on geomagnetically induced currents (GIC)—with the broader aim of contributing to national and international research initiatives. This project supports the long-term sustainability goals of the DHEUSeR Cluster by aligning with external funding strategies, such as NSERC Alliance, NFRF, and SSHRC, and advancing Canada’s resilience against space weather threats through digital innovation and interdisciplinary collaboration.

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Project Overview

Title: Modelling Pertussis Transmission and Vaccine Scenarios in Newfoundland and Labrador
Funding Agency: Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC)
Goal: To support public health decision-making in Newfoundland and Labrador by predicting pertussis trends and evaluating the impact of routine and booster vaccination strategies using a transmission dynamics model.

Project Summary

This project responds to a request from Newfoundland and Labrador Health Services (NLHS) for modelling support to address a surge in pertussis (whooping cough) cases. Funded by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC), the project uses a transmission dynamics model to analyze disease trends and assess different vaccination scenarios.

Under the leadership of Dr. Jianhong Wu at 91��ɫ, the research team will utilize fine-grained, age-stratified data and social contact patterns to simulate pertussis spread and evaluate the effectiveness of various vaccine strategies. The work aims to inform optimal public health responses in Labrador and may guide broader national vaccination approaches.

Key Research Areas

• Disease Transmission Modelling: Using a transmission dynamics model to predict pertussis trends.
• Scenario Analysis: Evaluating the impact of different combinations of routine and booster vaccination strategies.
• Age-Stratified Contact Patterns: Incorporating contact data to better understand inter-age group transmission.
• Data-Driven Policy Support: Providing formal reports and presentations to public health stakeholders.

Key Contributors

Project Lead:

• Jianhong Wu, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, 91��ɫ

Project Duration

Start Date: January 20, 2025
End Date: March 21, 2025

Impact and Future Goals

This short-term project will directly support public health planning in response to a local pertussis outbreak. Its findings will help determine the best vaccination strategies for reducing transmission, especially among infants and young children. The methodology and insights may also serve as a model for other jurisdictions facing similar public health challenges.

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