Congratulations to Professor Huaiping Zhu, who was honoured this year by the Canadian Applied and Industrial Mathematics Society (CAIMS). He received the 2024 CAIMS-Fields Industrial Prize, and presented the Industrial Research Prize Lecture at the , held June 24-27, 2024.

Zhu, based in the Department of Mathematics & Statistics, is a leader in infectious disease modelling. He directs the Centre for Disease Modelling (CDM) and Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems (LAMPS) at 91亚色, as well as the pan-Canadian One Health Modelling Network for Emerging Infection (OMNI). Through his work in CDM, LAMPS and OMNI, he has advanced the understanding of pandemic dynamics and provided timely guidance for public health policy.

His CAIMS Industrial Research Prize Lecture focused on modelling studies for the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in Canada. Warming, climate variability and extreme weather events are expected to drive an increase in frequency and intensity of mosquito-borne disease (MBD) outbreaks globally. In Canada, this will mean an increased risk of endemic and emerging MBD outbreaks, such as West Nile virus, dengue and other MBDs with origins in tropical regions. To characterize the incidence and spread of mosquito-borne diseases among people and animals, the West Nile virus surveillance system has adopted a One Health approach involving experts from human, animal and environmental domains.

In his lecture, Zhu presented data-driven modelling for Culex mosquito populations, as well as a dynamic study of models for the threshold conditions for an outbreak and recurrent outbreaks. He also discussed the risk of MBDs in Canada if warming continues, and how modelling studies will contribute to early warning capacity for emerging infectious disease outbreaks as a key adaptive response to climate change.

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Modelling suggests advanced age does not have a strong effect on immune response once comorbidities are controlled for

Thinking about getting a spring-time booster shot? coming out of 91亚色鈥檚 Centre for Disease Modelling in the Faculty of Science shows that immunity after a COVID-19 booster lasts much longer than the primary series alone. These findings are among other, sometimes 鈥渦nintuitive,鈥� revelations of how factors like age, sex and comorbidities do and don鈥檛 affect immune response.

The study鈥檚 authors 鈥� 91亚色 Post Doctoral researchers Chapin Korosec and David Dick, Applied Mathematics Professor Iain Moyles and Professor James Watmough with the University of New Brunswick 鈥� used health data submitted to the Covid Immunity Task-Force project for more than 150 individuals who received either Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna COVID-19 vaccines to look at how immunity holds up over time.

鈥淥ur approach as mathematicians is to create mathematical models of the immune system, and then calibrate those models to health care data in order to advance our understanding of the human immune system. It was really interesting to see the SARS-CoV-2 booster dose have such a huge increase in protective longevity capacity as compared to the primary series of two doses,鈥� says Korosec, the study鈥檚 lead author.

Published today in the journal Scientific Reports, the study used Canadian vaccine data collected from individuals living in long-term care, as well as frontline health-care workers working in long-term care and hospitals.

Looking at the group as a whole, the median length for the antibody half-life immune response was 63 days for the primary series, and increased to 115 days for those who went on to receive their boosters, a statistically significant finding, says Korosec.

It is well-established that age can affect how adept the body is at priming an immune response after vaccines, so much so that advanced age is considered a comorbidity itself, says Korosec.

鈥淐hronological age is your time since birth. But you also have an immunological age, which is correlated to your chronological age, and is related to how your body loses its ability to prime against invading pathogens and produce antibodies as time marches on,鈥� explains Korosec. 鈥淲hat's convoluted is that as we age chronologically, the probability that we accrue diseases that can affect the immune system in unintuitive ways also increases.鈥�

Looking into this aspect, the researchers found that older adults did have a less long-lasting immune response, but once they controlled for other comorbidities such as hypertension, lung disease and cancer, age no longer had as significant of an influence on the immune response.

Other interesting findings include a small, but statistically significant immune response for males versus females, and people with asthma having a longer lasting immune response 鈥� more durable, in fact, than those with hybrid immunity from vaccines and contracting COVID-19.

鈥淲e found that some outcomes were surprising and worth further study, but of course we're not advocating any particular comorbidity is beneficial,鈥� says Dick. 鈥淲e don't have any information from this study on how asthma would affect the severity of the COVID-19 illness, for example.鈥�

Outside of the strict findings, the researchers also say the study points to the importance of interdisciplinary research and are excited about the possibilities for collaboration, with plans to open 91亚色鈥檚 medical school in 2028.

鈥淲hile we鈥檙e all from math and stats departments, the data comes from clinicians who went through medical school and are now professors studying immunology, and I think this study shows how people with different skill sets can come together and do really interesting science,鈥� says Korosec.

Adds Moyles: 鈥淲e have a really top applied math program at 91亚色, and now the university has announced a medical school. Imagine these clinicians were at 91亚色 and we had access to the data on the ground floor. This would cut the research timeline by years and has huge potential for future interdisciplinary research at the university.鈥�

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The 2022 FIFA World Cup ended with a tight win for Argentina over France on penalties, but it was also a triumph for SARS-CoV-2 with a significant jump in the number of cases, some of which 91亚色 researchers say could have been prevented.

New research published today and led by 91亚色 used the 2022 FIFA World Cup as a case study to help determine the best ways to mitigate virus spread and hospitalizations at mass gatherings in the future. A technique was used to sample initial conditions stemming from possible matches held between visiting teams, which then formed the basis of independent simulations of each game.

The paper, , was published in the journal PLOS Computational Biology.

Lead author of the paper, 91亚色 postdoctoral fellow Martin Grunnill, and an academic-industrial collaborative team, including Faculty of Science Distinguished Research Professor , found that pre-travel screenings did little to prevent infections and hospitalizations.

Pre-match screening of spectators and match staff, however, with either a rapid antigen test half a day before or with a reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test one and a half days before a match, was more effective than pre-travel screening. The researchers found doing both pre-travel and pre-match testing had even better outcomes, but what worked best was ensuring all visitors had a COVID-19 vaccination, a second or booster dose, within a few months of departure to the tournament.

鈥淭hat precaution reduced the rate of infection and particularly the rate of hospitalizations,鈥� says Grunnill.

Prior to the FIFA World Cup, COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations were declining in Qatar but began to rise during the tournament peaking at the beginning of the quarter final.

鈥淭he ambitious goal of the partnership research includes developing modelling technologies that can be used to assist in the preparation of major mass gathering events, whether religious or sports related in nature or a major festival,鈥� says Wu. 鈥淲e hope these platforms can be used to provide input into how to help manage respiratory infection risk for the next FIFA World Cup, hosted by North America, and the Olympic Games in Paris this summer.鈥�

Wu points out that even before COVID-19, large events attracting tens of thousands of people spurred the spread of communicable diseases, sometimes globally.

鈥淚n the case of international events like the FIFA World Cup where visitors come from all over the world and return home, there is a higher chance of infections spreading beyond the host country,鈥� says Grunnill.

The work is part of an on-going 91亚色-Sanofi collaborative project, funded by the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada, that aims to developing a generic modelling framework tailored to specific events involving intensive social-economic activities to support preparing those events with minimal risk of disease outbreak and spreading.

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Woldegerima (principal investigator) received $480,000 for his project entitled 鈥淢odelling, predicting and risk assessment of mpox and other (re)emerging zoonotic threats to inform decision-making and public health actions.鈥� Moyles is co-principal investigator, along with Professors Bouchra Nasri (Universit茅 de Montr茅al) and Monica Malta (University of Toronto), on a project entitled 鈥淓pidemiological modelling of behavioural impact on Mpox mitigation strategies,鈥� which received $412,000.

Woldegerima will use epidemiological and geospatial models including mathematical and artificial intelligence-based models to study epidemiology, transmission dynamics, and immunology and intervention strategies to forecast the effectiveness of prevention and control strategies for mpox and other zoonotic diseases in Canada and around the world.

鈥淲e are not safe from emerging or re-emerging diseases including animal-to-human spillovers,鈥� said Woldegerima. 鈥淥ur research will provide valuable insights for preventive public health strategies and help governments be better prepared to manage and respond to an epidemic or pandemic threat in the future.鈥�

Woldegerima and his research team will conduct risk-map assessments, geospatial analysis and machine learning to identify hotspots for potential outbreaks around the world. In addition, their research will use biobehavioural data and results of a survey by the Centre for Disease Control that involved men who have sex with men - a population considered at higher risk for infection - to examine control measures, risk factors, and the impact mpox has had on sexually transmitted and blood-borne infections. To learn more, .

Moyles and his team will develop an epidemiological model of mpox that includes changes in behaviour. Behaviour plays a critical role in how infectious diseases are spread, as well as the willingness of an individual to seek preventative health measures. Driven by data from scientific literature and near real-time behavioural information from social media on prevailing attitudes towards mpox, the team will look to create a centralised repository of behavioural information in the context of infectious diseases that can provide reliable and updated knowledge for decision-makers and researchers. The project will place a particular emphasis on the gay, bisexual and other men-who-have-sex-with-men (gbMSM) community, which has been disproportionately impacted by the mpox outbreak.

The team will work closely with the gbMSM community, creating a community advisory board that includes experts and members of the gbMSM community in order to develop culturally sensitive and adequate strategies and ensure timely knowledge translation of our results to a broad audience, such as open-access publications and best-practice documentation. To learn more, read the .

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Professors H茅l猫ne Carabin and Jacques B茅lair from the Universit茅 de Montr茅al co-moderated the virtual event, and in attendance were network researchers, collaborators from across Canada and the U.S., representatives from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and the Public Health Agency of Canada, as well as fellow Emerging Infectious Diseases Modelling (EIDM) networks. More than 20 speakers presented about recent research milestones. Further, 91亚色 postdoctoral fellow Pei Yuan presented on behalf of her winning group of the which included members Jeta Molla and Zahra Khanzad (91亚色), Harini Kapali (University of Victoria) and Aiyush Bansal (University of Toronto).

OMNI-R脡UNIS Director Huaiping Zhu, professor in the Department of Mathematics & Statistics, took the opportunity to thank everyone for all their support in his opening address on behalf of the network鈥檚 leadership team.

鈥淎s we continue implementing initiatives in the second and third year of the grant, it is ever so imperative that we keep striving towards the intended and long-term objective and mission of this network: to build a modelling network that will enhance Canada鈥檚 early detection, warning, and response to emerging infectious diseases using a One Health approach,鈥� said Zhu. 鈥淎s infectious diseases continue to emerge, addressing the interconnections between people, animals, plants, and their environment has become increasingly critical to our response and research.鈥�

Over the last year and a half, OMNI-R脡UNIS has made significant strides across various components of the network:

• twenty-two active projects within four core emerging infectious disease sub-themes: Data Management, Risk for Emergence and Spillover, Early Warning Systems for Emerging Infectious Diseases, and Intervention and Control;
• capacity-building opportunities for highly qualified personnel and trainees in the EIDM consortium;
• knowledge-sharing events with renowned speakers; and
• network growth of the governing body and team.

As a One Health research network, OMNI-R脡UNIS teams are focused on building meaningful capacity as thought leaders in this space, to ensure the sustainability of the network, support knowledge users in public health, policy, and academia, and support decision-makers in helping to make public health decisions. During the next two years, the network will continue moving forward the impactful research of its existing projects across a number of current topics, expanding its geographic reach, increasing our collaboration with policymakers, and expanding its reach internationally.

CDM and 91亚色 are home to several network leads who have been instrumental in building up OMNI-R脡UNIS from its inception. They include:

• Huaiping Zhu (Faculty of Science), principal investigator and director of OMNI and CDM
• Jane Heffernan (Faculty of Science), highly qualified personnel training lead
• Iain Moyles (Faculty of Science), associate director and theme 4 co-leader (Intervention & Control)
• Hanna Jankowski (Faculty of Science), Chair of the Equity, Diversity, Inclusivity and Decolonization Committee
• Manos Papagelis (Lassonde), research lead theme 3 project (Early Warning Systems of EID)
• Jude Dzevela Kong (Faculty of Science), theme 3 co-leader (Early Warning Systems of EID)

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Congratulations to Professor Jane Heffernan, Department of Mathematics & Statistics, for being elected as the next president of the (SMB)鈥攖he largest and only international society in its field. Her position commences in summer 2022.

Heffernan is an international leader in infectious disease modelling, tackling important questions related to the spread of diseases and public health strategies. Her research program centers on understanding the spread and persistence of infectious diseases in hosts and in populations, with a focus on studies of immunity and behavior change. Her expertise includes mathematical models of disease (including COVID-19, HIV, HCV, HSV, TB, and influenza), and forecasting healthcare demand (for example, ward and ICU hospital beds). She leads her Modelling Infection and Immunity Lab and is the Communications Director for the Centre for Disease Modelling at 91亚色. Professor Heffernan also works closely with modelling groups in Health Canada, the Public Health Agency of Canada, and the Fields Institute鈥檚 COVID Modelling Task Force.

SMB was founded in 1973 to promote the development and dissemination of research and education at the interface between the mathematical and biological sciences. It does so through its meetings, awards, and publications. The Society serves a diverse community of researchers and educators in academia, in industry, and government agencies throughout the world.

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Re-opening to pre-pandemic levels will lead to a resurgence of COVID-19 infections, peaking in late March or April, new modelling research from 91亚色 has found.

In addition, the researchers found that without more robust PCR testing availability, the number of COVID-19 cases in Ontario and Canada are more than twice as large as reported. In Toronto, it鈥檚 1.97 times higher than reported.

鈥淭he current limited availability of PCR testing in many provinces meant cases were drastically underreported,鈥� says 91亚色 Professor of the Faculty of Science and the corresponding author of the study. 鈥淚t鈥檚 important to continue to adhere to isolation protocols and get vaccinated to blunt the spread of the virus.鈥�

The paper, , published in the journal Infectious Disease Modelling, looked at cases and severe outcomes data from Jan. 1 to Feb. 9.

The new model was designed to capture under-reported cases considering the new testing guidelines, social behaviours and booster vaccine campaign for the Omicron variant for Toronto, Ontario and Canada.

鈥淲e conducted analyses on the impact of PCR testing capacity, self-testing, different levels of reopening and vaccination coverage on cases and severe outcomes,鈥� says Zhu.

The researchers note that by keeping partial restrictions in place, such as capacity limits in public spaces, promoting self-testing or allowing more access to PCR tests, along with isolation for those who test positive, would mitigate the resurgence of cases.

Testing alone will not stop a resurgence. It鈥檚 important to follow public health policies based on tests results that will help control transmission of COVID-19 and its variants, says Zhu.

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