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Congratulations to Professor Huaiping Zhu, who was honoured this year by the Canadian Applied and Industrial Mathematics Society (CAIMS). He received the 2024 CAIMS-Fields Industrial Prize, and presented the Industrial Research Prize Lecture at the , held June 24-27, 2024.

Zhu, based in the Department of Mathematics & Statistics, is a leader in infectious disease modelling. He directs the Centre for Disease Modelling (CDM) and Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems (LAMPS) at 91亚色, as well as the pan-Canadian One Health Modelling Network for Emerging Infection (OMNI). Through his work in CDM, LAMPS and OMNI, he has advanced the understanding of pandemic dynamics and provided timely guidance for public health policy.

His CAIMS Industrial Research Prize Lecture focused on modelling studies for the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in Canada. Warming, climate variability and extreme weather events are expected to drive an increase in frequency and intensity of mosquito-borne disease (MBD) outbreaks globally. In Canada, this will mean an increased risk of endemic and emerging MBD outbreaks, such as West Nile virus, dengue and other MBDs with origins in tropical regions. To characterize the incidence and spread of mosquito-borne diseases among people and animals, the West Nile virus surveillance system has adopted a One Health approach involving experts from human, animal and environmental domains.

In his lecture, Zhu presented data-driven modelling for Culex mosquito populations, as well as a dynamic study of models for the threshold conditions for an outbreak and recurrent outbreaks. He also discussed the risk of MBDs in Canada if warming continues, and how modelling studies will contribute to early warning capacity for emerging infectious disease outbreaks as a key adaptive response to climate change.

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Modelling suggests advanced age does not have a strong effect on immune response once comorbidities are controlled for

Thinking about getting a spring-time booster shot? coming out of 91亚色鈥檚 Centre for Disease Modelling in the Faculty of Science shows that immunity after a COVID-19 booster lasts much longer than the primary series alone. These findings are among other, sometimes 鈥渦nintuitive,鈥� revelations of how factors like age, sex and comorbidities do and don鈥檛 affect immune response.

The study鈥檚 authors 鈥� 91亚色 Post Doctoral researchers Chapin Korosec and David Dick, Applied Mathematics Professor Iain Moyles and Professor James Watmough with the University of New Brunswick 鈥� used health data submitted to the Covid Immunity Task-Force project for more than 150 individuals who received either Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna COVID-19 vaccines to look at how immunity holds up over time.

鈥淥ur approach as mathematicians is to create mathematical models of the immune system, and then calibrate those models to health care data in order to advance our understanding of the human immune system. It was really interesting to see the SARS-CoV-2 booster dose have such a huge increase in protective longevity capacity as compared to the primary series of two doses,鈥� says Korosec, the study鈥檚 lead author.

Published today in the journal Scientific Reports, the study used Canadian vaccine data collected from individuals living in long-term care, as well as frontline health-care workers working in long-term care and hospitals.

Looking at the group as a whole, the median length for the antibody half-life immune response was 63 days for the primary series, and increased to 115 days for those who went on to receive their boosters, a statistically significant finding, says Korosec.

It is well-established that age can affect how adept the body is at priming an immune response after vaccines, so much so that advanced age is considered a comorbidity itself, says Korosec.

鈥淐hronological age is your time since birth. But you also have an immunological age, which is correlated to your chronological age, and is related to how your body loses its ability to prime against invading pathogens and produce antibodies as time marches on,鈥� explains Korosec. 鈥淲hat's convoluted is that as we age chronologically, the probability that we accrue diseases that can affect the immune system in unintuitive ways also increases.鈥�

Looking into this aspect, the researchers found that older adults did have a less long-lasting immune response, but once they controlled for other comorbidities such as hypertension, lung disease and cancer, age no longer had as significant of an influence on the immune response.

Other interesting findings include a small, but statistically significant immune response for males versus females, and people with asthma having a longer lasting immune response 鈥� more durable, in fact, than those with hybrid immunity from vaccines and contracting COVID-19.

鈥淲e found that some outcomes were surprising and worth further study, but of course we're not advocating any particular comorbidity is beneficial,鈥� says Dick. 鈥淲e don't have any information from this study on how asthma would affect the severity of the COVID-19 illness, for example.鈥�

Outside of the strict findings, the researchers also say the study points to the importance of interdisciplinary research and are excited about the possibilities for collaboration, with plans to open 91亚色鈥檚 medical school in 2028.

鈥淲hile we鈥檙e all from math and stats departments, the data comes from clinicians who went through medical school and are now professors studying immunology, and I think this study shows how people with different skill sets can come together and do really interesting science,鈥� says Korosec.

Adds Moyles: 鈥淲e have a really top applied math program at 91亚色, and now the university has announced a medical school. Imagine these clinicians were at 91亚色 and we had access to the data on the ground floor. This would cut the research timeline by years and has huge potential for future interdisciplinary research at the university.鈥�

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The 2022 FIFA World Cup ended with a tight win for Argentina over France on penalties, but it was also a triumph for SARS-CoV-2 with a significant jump in the number of cases, some of which 91亚色 researchers say could have been prevented.

New research published today and led by 91亚色 used the 2022 FIFA World Cup as a case study to help determine the best ways to mitigate virus spread and hospitalizations at mass gatherings in the future. A technique was used to sample initial conditions stemming from possible matches held between visiting teams, which then formed the basis of independent simulations of each game.

The paper, , was published in the journal PLOS Computational Biology.

Lead author of the paper, 91亚色 postdoctoral fellow Martin Grunnill, and an academic-industrial collaborative team, including Faculty of Science Distinguished Research Professor , found that pre-travel screenings did little to prevent infections and hospitalizations.

Pre-match screening of spectators and match staff, however, with either a rapid antigen test half a day before or with a reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test one and a half days before a match, was more effective than pre-travel screening. The researchers found doing both pre-travel and pre-match testing had even better outcomes, but what worked best was ensuring all visitors had a COVID-19 vaccination, a second or booster dose, within a few months of departure to the tournament.

鈥淭hat precaution reduced the rate of infection and particularly the rate of hospitalizations,鈥� says Grunnill.

Prior to the FIFA World Cup, COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations were declining in Qatar but began to rise during the tournament peaking at the beginning of the quarter final.

鈥淭he ambitious goal of the partnership research includes developing modelling technologies that can be used to assist in the preparation of major mass gathering events, whether religious or sports related in nature or a major festival,鈥� says Wu. 鈥淲e hope these platforms can be used to provide input into how to help manage respiratory infection risk for the next FIFA World Cup, hosted by North America, and the Olympic Games in Paris this summer.鈥�

Wu points out that even before COVID-19, large events attracting tens of thousands of people spurred the spread of communicable diseases, sometimes globally.

鈥淚n the case of international events like the FIFA World Cup where visitors come from all over the world and return home, there is a higher chance of infections spreading beyond the host country,鈥� says Grunnill.

The work is part of an on-going 91亚色-Sanofi collaborative project, funded by the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada, that aims to developing a generic modelling framework tailored to specific events involving intensive social-economic activities to support preparing those events with minimal risk of disease outbreak and spreading.

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91亚色 researchers say assuming you have COVID-19 and isolating may decrease influenza and COVID-19 infections, and help an already stressed health-care system

Feeling sniffly, congested or have a sore throat and don't know if it's a cold, the flu or SARS-CoV-2? Researchers at 91亚色 say before heading to work or a restaurant, it's best to test first for COVID-19 and wear a mask.

New modelling research looks at the co-circulation dynamics of influenza and COVID-19 to understand the role of vaccines, testing speed and the use of personal protection strategies, such as masking, in helping to avert COVID-19 and the flu peaking at the same time.

The researchers, including 91亚色 Faculty of Science lead author and PhD student , senior author Assistant Professor , and Distinguished Research Professor and Director of the , found that increasing COVID-19 daily testing capacity delays the outbreak peak time and peak size, but increases the number of flu infections.

"The reason is that people don't need to isolate if they have the flu. By testing for COVID-19 early on, when symptoms first arise, people who test negative will continue to do their normal daily things, including heading to the office, even if they have the flu. That increases the time period when others could be infected," says Majeed.

鈥淎ssuming you have just the flu could increase not only the rate of influenza but COVID-19. On the other hand, assuming you have COVID-19 and isolating may decrease influenza and COVID-19 infections.鈥�

The study also found that if more people get their third or fourth booster dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, even if the influenza coverage is kept at about 35 per cent, which is average, it will delay the peak times for both COVID-19 and the flu.

"Delaying or diminishing peak time of either the flu or COVID-19 would provide a huge benefit for our already stressed health-care system," says Woldegerima. "Having COVID-19 and the flu co-circulating, especially as they have similar symptoms, can quickly overburden healthcare, as we've already seen, and slow testing and treatment."

As multiple highly contagious strains of SARS-CoV-2 continue to gain traction and circulate 鈥� especially ones that are better at evading the immune system and rendering vaccines less effective 鈥� the more likely there will be new waves of COVID-19 permeating a typical flu season.

In addition, the study found that if the more people were vaccinated against both, but particularly the flu vaccine, it would reduce the peak for COVID-19 and delay the peak time for both infections, significantly.

Mask wearing, however, coupled with a moderate increase in vaccine uptake may mitigate COVID-19 and prevent an influenza outbreak. As of their last available report covering the last week of December 2022, FluWatch Canada reported there were 2,841 lab-confirmed flu cases.

The researchers say their study has important practical implications for public-health policy as it shows effectively managing and controlling influenza and COVID-19 outbreaks in the same

season relies on optimal strategies for vaccine coverage.

The paper, Mitigating co-circulation of seasonal influenza and COVID-19 pandemic in the presence of vaccination: A mathematical modeling approach, is published in the journal Frontiers in Public Health.

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Professors H茅l猫ne Carabin and Jacques B茅lair from the Universit茅 de Montr茅al co-moderated the virtual event, and in attendance were network researchers, collaborators from across Canada and the U.S., representatives from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and the Public Health Agency of Canada, as well as fellow Emerging Infectious Diseases Modelling (EIDM) networks. More than 20 speakers presented about recent research milestones. Further, 91亚色 postdoctoral fellow Pei Yuan presented on behalf of her winning group of the which included members Jeta Molla and Zahra Khanzad (91亚色), Harini Kapali (University of Victoria) and Aiyush Bansal (University of Toronto).

OMNI-R脡UNIS Director Huaiping Zhu, professor in the Department of Mathematics & Statistics, took the opportunity to thank everyone for all their support in his opening address on behalf of the network鈥檚 leadership team.

鈥淎s we continue implementing initiatives in the second and third year of the grant, it is ever so imperative that we keep striving towards the intended and long-term objective and mission of this network: to build a modelling network that will enhance Canada鈥檚 early detection, warning, and response to emerging infectious diseases using a One Health approach,鈥� said Zhu. 鈥淎s infectious diseases continue to emerge, addressing the interconnections between people, animals, plants, and their environment has become increasingly critical to our response and research.鈥�

Over the last year and a half, OMNI-R脡UNIS has made significant strides across various components of the network:

• twenty-two active projects within four core emerging infectious disease sub-themes: Data Management, Risk for Emergence and Spillover, Early Warning Systems for Emerging Infectious Diseases, and Intervention and Control;
• capacity-building opportunities for highly qualified personnel and trainees in the EIDM consortium;
• knowledge-sharing events with renowned speakers; and
• network growth of the governing body and team.

As a One Health research network, OMNI-R脡UNIS teams are focused on building meaningful capacity as thought leaders in this space, to ensure the sustainability of the network, support knowledge users in public health, policy, and academia, and support decision-makers in helping to make public health decisions. During the next two years, the network will continue moving forward the impactful research of its existing projects across a number of current topics, expanding its geographic reach, increasing our collaboration with policymakers, and expanding its reach internationally.

CDM and 91亚色 are home to several network leads who have been instrumental in building up OMNI-R脡UNIS from its inception. They include:

• Huaiping Zhu (Faculty of Science), principal investigator and director of OMNI and CDM
• Jane Heffernan (Faculty of Science), highly qualified personnel training lead
• Iain Moyles (Faculty of Science), associate director and theme 4 co-leader (Intervention & Control)
• Hanna Jankowski (Faculty of Science), Chair of the Equity, Diversity, Inclusivity and Decolonization Committee
• Manos Papagelis (Lassonde), research lead theme 3 project (Early Warning Systems of EID)
• Jude Dzevela Kong (Faculty of Science), theme 3 co-leader (Early Warning Systems of EID)

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Mathematical modelling research in the Faculty of Science, in collaboration with the Public Health Agency of Canada, shows that it would become difficult to control monkeypox (MPX) outbreaks in a metropolitan area if the virus were to spill over into wild animal hosts, such as rodents.

MPX can spread human-to-animal and animal-to-human, and a range of animal species are thought to be able to infect humans. A research team led by Professor Huaiping Zhu in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics used a 鈥淥ne Health鈥� approach to model the spread of the MPX virus in humans, considering the potential role of animal hosts such as rodents (e.g., rats, mice, squirrels, chipmunks, etc.), and transmission of the virus in high-risk human groups, including gay and bisexual men.

Their simulations suggest that the risk of an MPX outbreak remains high, especially in high鈥恟isk groups in the absence of intervention, and may spill over to broader populations. But the risk of outbreaks can be greatly reduced if at least 65 per cent of symptomatic cases can be isolated and their contacts traced and quarantined. Nevertheless, when factoring the existence of an animal reservoir and potential virus evolution, the team observed the possible higher risk of outbreaks with much earlier peaks and multiple waves driven by animal transmission.

鈥淥ur modelling suggests that current isolation strategies that are beneficial in mitigating outbreaks in humans may not be sufficient if the virus spreads to animals, and that public health measures for the animal population could be needed,鈥� said Zhu, who is also director of the Centre for Disease Modelling (CDM). 鈥淚t is vital that we monitor the incidence of MPX in animals to serve as an extra indicator for assessing the risk of MPX epidemics.鈥�

The CDM research team at 91亚色 included postdoctoral Fellow Pei Yuan and PhD students Yi Tan and Liu Yang, and Professor Jane Heffernan in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics. The research was conducted as part of the One Health Modelling Network for Emerging Infections (OMNI)/R脡seau UNe seule sant茅 sur la mod茅lisation des InfectionS (R脡UNIS), a network led by Zhu and supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and Public Health Agency of Canada.

The paper, 鈥溾��, was published in the Journal of Medical Virology.

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The 2022 Canada-China Symposium on Modeling, Prevention and Control of Zoonoses, organized by the Canadian Center for Disease Modeling at 91亚色, took place Nov. 11 to 16 and examined how zoonotic disease spreads through humans.

The 鈥�2022 Canada-China Symposium on Modeling, Prevention and Control of Zoonoses,鈥� which took place from Nov. 11 to 16 EST (Nov 12 -16, Beijing time UTC+8), co-organized by the Center for Disease Modeling (CDM), was a resounding success. As a collaborative CDM Canada-China program that takes place annually, this year the symposium focused on modelling, prevention and control of zoonoses (infectious agents such as bacteria, viruses, parasites or prions that jump from animals to humans). The symposium brought together more than 100 experts and scholars from across Canada and China in the fields of mathematical modelling for infectious diseases, public health and veterinary public health.

The five-day was held virtually, and was jointly organized by the CDM, the Center for Mathematical Biosciences of Northeast Normal University, the China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center and the Chinese Society of Mathematical Biology.

This Canada-China event kicked off the first two days with focused, distinguished lectures given by global thought leaders and experts on topics covering the latest development and progress in the field. The remaining three days were filled with invited talks and panel discussions focused on the concept of 鈥渙ne health鈥� and promoting mathematical modeling research in solving practical problems by in-depth coordinated development in multidisciplinary fields, to prevent and control the occurrence and prevalence of zoonotic diseases. The seminar focused on hotspot issues of zoonotic diseases and included eight distinguished lectures, 26 invited talks and six panel discussions involving 22 scholars, which strengthened interdisciplinary and interdepartmental connectivity and cooperation among the scientific community on zoonotic disease modeling, prevention and control.

The 2022 Organizing Committee was co-chaired by 91亚色 Research Chair, Professor Huaiping Zhu, the director of CDM, and Professor Meng Fan, from Northeast Normal University in China The organizing committee included CDM members Julien Arino (University of Manitoba), Jacques Belair (University of Montreal), Jingan Cui (Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, China), 91亚色 Mathematics and Statistics Professor Jane Heffernan, Zhen Jin (Shanxi University, China), Wendi Wang (Southwest University, China), Youming Wang (China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center), James Watmough (University of New Brunswick), and Yanni Xiao (Xi鈥檃n Jiaotong University, China). 91亚色 postdoc Pei Yuan and 91亚色 Program Manager Natasha Ketter were involved in the local supporting committee.

Heffernan, with 91亚色 Professors Jude Dzevela Kong, Iain Moyles, Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima and about 200 graduate students, postdocs and scholars also participated in the event.

The distinguished lectures provided a comprehensive and in-depth elaboration on the challenges, research hotspots, latest progress, prevention and control experience and reflections on the prevention and control of zoonotic diseases.

Kong, Moyles, Assefa Woldegerima and 23 speakers across Canada and China shared their latest research results and frontiers in zoonotic disease modeling, prevention and control, involving a variety of zoonotic diseases such as monkeypox, COVID-19, Lyme disease, Malaria, West Nile Virus fever, Ebola and Brucellosis.

The innovative organizing of the seminar broke down barriers of disciplines, strengthened the transformational connection between individual research, teamwork and scientific research institutions, and promoted the interdisciplinary benign interaction and multi-party cooperation in zoonotic disease modeling, prevention and control. The symposium is not only of great significance for innovating ideas on the prevention and control of zoonoses, but also a beneficial attempt for the deep integration of public health, veterinary public health, mathematical biology and other disciplines, making significant contributions to global research of 鈥渙ne health鈥� framework.

To learn more, visit .

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Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, Faculty of Science mathematics and statistics Professor Jianhong Wu has been working non-stop with both federal and provincial agencies and a National Modelling Task Force to project the spread of the disease and its variants throughout the country 鈥� a testament to both his expertise and 91亚色鈥檚 leadership in mathematical modelling.

Wu, a Distinguished Research Professor at 91亚色, is one of Canada鈥檚 most prolific researchers for publications in COVID-19 and mathematical modelling and joins several other 91亚色 faculty members who helped lead the way with research in the area (SciVal, 2021).

It鈥檚 nothing new to Wu, who is . He was tasked in 2003 with leading a national network of mathematicians and researchers to model the path of SARS-1. In 2020, the Fields Institute asked him to organize a national modelling Task Force for COVID-19, and he responded to the call by simply reactivating and expanding the network.

鈥淥ver the last two decades, my research time has been spent on establishing and leading national teams from one pandemic to another,鈥� says Wu, whose work focused on big data and neural networks prior to the SARS outbreak.

Sitting on multiple provincial, national and international panels, Wu is also a member of the Ontario Modelling Consensus Table that builds consensus 鈥� using research results of multiple modelling teams from across Ontario universities 鈥� about the projected COVID-19 cases and the disease burden on the health system under a range of intervention scenarios. This consensus has been providing critical data to inform the government鈥檚 policy about closures and re-openings: how to do so and how quickly to do so. By integrating mathematical modelling and stochastic optimization, Wu鈥檚 group suggested optimal pathways and likely scenarios for escalating or de-escalating social distancing, and estimated the costs and benefits of each 鈥� factoring in economics and mental health.

鈥淔rom SARS-1 onward, we鈥檝e been working with a variety of stakeholders on collecting data of population contacts, drug resistance, vaccine efficacies, waning and vaccination priorities, and health-care system,鈥� Wu says. 鈥淭he data quality and accessibility has been much improved in Ontario this time, as well as the co-ordination of efforts from different research groups. Each of these modelling teams has a different collection of expertise and that helps cross-validation, which is important when the disease moves so fast and our knowledge about the disease advances fast.鈥�

Wu鈥檚 group has also incorporated artificial intelligence into its work, facilitating the real-time processing of 鈥渢he huge amount of data to identify vulnerable populations and hot spots.鈥�

鈥淎I and Mathematics don鈥檛 have emotion, and they allow us to think several steps ahead,鈥� says Wu, 鈥渂ut with the disease moving so fast, it has been a challenge to convince the decision makers to take a proactive approach rather than being reactive, and, unfortunately, sometimes with a delay.鈥�

Being at the forefront of pandemic modelling isn鈥檛 something Wu anticipated when he arrived at 91亚色. Born in China, he came to Canada to pursue post-doctoral research in Alberta with an international expert in mathematical biology. He joined 91亚色鈥檚 Department of Mathematics and Statistics in 1990 and became the nation鈥檚 youngest Senior Canada Research Chair in 2001. Some of his ongoing research concerns the impact of Lyme disease. He is working to predict the tick-borne infection risk worldwide and looking at how its trajectory is being affected by global warming. In 2017, he was awarded the , and has been leading a large 91亚色-Sanofi collaboration to evaluate the cost and benefits of various immunization programs.

His research interest includes big data and informational analytics, and he is the funding co-chair for a major global conference on this topic.

鈥淒uring peaceful times, it鈥檚 my hobby,鈥� he says.

However, these aren鈥檛 peaceful times and COVID-19 is currently a priority. Wu鈥檚 stellar work serves to demonstrate 91亚色鈥檚 impact on COVID modelling, which will continue to support efforts for future outbreaks and pandemics, COVID-19 related or otherwise.

鈥淒uring a pandemic like this, our theories confront reality,鈥� Wu says 鈥� and big data analytics is a part of his tool kit.

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