Congratulations to Professor Jane Heffernan, Department of Mathematics & Statistics, for being elected as the next president of the (SMB)鈥攖he largest and only international society in its field. Her position commences in summer 2022.

Heffernan is an international leader in infectious disease modelling, tackling important questions related to the spread of diseases and public health strategies. Her research program centers on understanding the spread and persistence of infectious diseases in hosts and in populations, with a focus on studies of immunity and behavior change. Her expertise includes mathematical models of disease (including COVID-19, HIV, HCV, HSV, TB, and influenza), and forecasting healthcare demand (for example, ward and ICU hospital beds). She leads her Modelling Infection and Immunity Lab and is the Communications Director for the Centre for Disease Modelling at 91亚色. Professor Heffernan also works closely with modelling groups in Health Canada, the Public Health Agency of Canada, and the Fields Institute鈥檚 COVID Modelling Task Force.

SMB was founded in 1973 to promote the development and dissemination of research and education at the interface between the mathematical and biological sciences. It does so through its meetings, awards, and publications. The Society serves a diverse community of researchers and educators in academia, in industry, and government agencies throughout the world.

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Seyed Moghadas

Moghadas is a global leader in the use of mathematical and computational models of disease epidemics and vaccination. His research is advancing public health capacity to detect and manage emerging Canadian and global health crises. He has achieved a stellar reputation in his field and is making exceptional contributions to 91亚色鈥檚 research culture and beyond.

During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, his expertise has been in high demand and has been instrumental in setting and improving health policies both in Canada and the U.S. Moghadas served in an advisory role to the Public Health Agency of Canada as an expert on modelling approaches and to the Science Advisor of Canada as part of the COVID-19 Modelling Expert Group. He is also a member of the research team established by the Commonwealth Fund, which provides regular updates on the impact of COVID-19 interventions to the U.S. Administration and the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. Over the past several years, Moghadas has held contracts with, or consulted for, additional national and international agencies: the National Collaborating Centre for Infectious Diseases, the Manitoba Health Pandemic Influenza Advisory Committee, Sanofi Pasteur Canada and Pfizer Global. His findings have influenced both provincial and federal government health policies and have been applied globally by international corporations. Moghadas is the founding director of the Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory at 91亚色 under the auspices of the Canadian Foundation for Innovation.

Through his extensive knowledge of mathematics and biology, and his capacity for innovative thinking, Moghadas has pioneered exciting research paths in disease modelling and has applied his research findings directly to public health issues and policies, which has enhanced 91亚色鈥檚 research reputation. His evidence-based research has been published in tier-one journals of the National Academy of Sciences, Nature Communications, and The Lancet series, among many other high-impact publications.

Read the in yFile.

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Re-opening to pre-pandemic levels will lead to a resurgence of COVID-19 infections, peaking in late March or April, new modelling research from 91亚色 has found.

In addition, the researchers found that without more robust PCR testing availability, the number of COVID-19 cases in Ontario and Canada are more than twice as large as reported. In Toronto, it鈥檚 1.97 times higher than reported.

鈥淭he current limited availability of PCR testing in many provinces meant cases were drastically underreported,鈥� says 91亚色 Professor of the Faculty of Science and the corresponding author of the study. 鈥淚t鈥檚 important to continue to adhere to isolation protocols and get vaccinated to blunt the spread of the virus.鈥�

The paper, , published in the journal Infectious Disease Modelling, looked at cases and severe outcomes data from Jan. 1 to Feb. 9.

The new model was designed to capture under-reported cases considering the new testing guidelines, social behaviours and booster vaccine campaign for the Omicron variant for Toronto, Ontario and Canada.

鈥淲e conducted analyses on the impact of PCR testing capacity, self-testing, different levels of reopening and vaccination coverage on cases and severe outcomes,鈥� says Zhu.

The researchers note that by keeping partial restrictions in place, such as capacity limits in public spaces, promoting self-testing or allowing more access to PCR tests, along with isolation for those who test positive, would mitigate the resurgence of cases.

Testing alone will not stop a resurgence. It鈥檚 important to follow public health policies based on tests results that will help control transmission of COVID-19 and its variants, says Zhu.

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