Considered one of the most vulnerable Liberal incumbents heading into the federal election, Dryden was defeated by Conservative challenger Mark Adler in the north Toronto riding. He becomes the first Tory to win the 91亚色 Centre seat since Fred C. Stinson occupied it from 1957 to 鈥�62.

. . .

But the Conservative government鈥檚 support for Israel was a key factor among Jewish voters in the riding, pundits said.

Adler is an active member of the Bathurst Jewish Community Centre and well known in the riding鈥檚 large Jewish community.

鈥淜aplan held the riding for years and he was a member of the Jewish community and the Liberal party tended to take a kind of centrist position on Israel,鈥� said 91亚色 political science professor Robert MacDermid. 鈥�(Prime Minister Stephen Harper) and the Conservatives have taken a much more pro-Israel stance on many issues and attracted many Jewish voters in that and surrounding ridings.鈥�

Fellow 91亚色 professor agreed. 鈥淣obody is unsupportive of Israel,鈥� said Drummond. 鈥淏ut I think some voters have found the Harper government rather less critical of Israel than perhaps some of the Liberals have been willing to be and that may have shifted some people鈥檚 support.鈥�

Adler founded and is president and CEO of The Economic Club of Canada which has drawn such speakers as Harper, Canadian premiers, former U.S. president Bill Clinton and former California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

91亚色 Centre is a diverse riding that includes low-income residents and a fair number of immigrants, said MacDermid.

鈥淭hey have all been hotly contested by the Conservatives鈥� attempt to win over new Canadian groupings,鈥� MacDermid said.

MacDermid didn鈥檛 think the fact that Toronto voters had elected right-leaning mayor Rob Ford was a major factor in swinging 91亚色 Centre to the Tories. Ford endorsed Harper last week.

Some voters routinely shift between the Liberals and Conservatives, and they may have been more willing to vote Conservative this time, said Drummond.

鈥淭here鈥檚 been a bit of a shift towards the Conservatives in the last few elections of voters who may have been willing to go back and forth between the Liberals and Conservatives and decided they鈥檙e more supportive of the Conservatives,鈥� he said.

Posted by Elizabeth Monier-Williams, research communications officer, with files courtesy of YFile鈥� 91亚色鈥檚 daily e-bulletin.

The post Professors Drummond and MacDermid comment on Liberal Ken Dryden's defeat in 91亚色 Centre appeared first on Research & Innovation.

Anyone transmitting the results of a poll has to include the name of the sponsor and the company that did the poll, which will help readers determine if the poll is objective.

Readers should also have access to the date when the poll was conducted and the size of the sample that was consulted to test reliability.

Finally, organizations have to disclose the margin of error, one of the most important pieces of information, according to Robert MacDermid, a political science professor at 91亚色.

If a poll says Jack Layton has 20 per cent of Canadians supporting him, but there is a margin of error of +/- 3 per cent, that means the support is actually between 23 and 17 per cent, he explained.

. . .

Polls aren鈥檛 the only way to gauge progress, according to MacDermid, who uses Layton鈥檚 recent rise in Quebec as an example.

鈥淭here are all sorts of evidence that people, especially in Quebec, are considering voting for Jack,鈥� he said. 鈥淵ou鈥檇 report these other things; that he is spending all his time there; that 1000 people showed up at a rally; and that other political parties are attacking him.鈥�

And polls aren鈥檛 the only way to determine how you want to vote, MacDermid says. Voters should consider the party platforms and what the leaders say about the issues that matter to the individual voter.

MacDermid was also in the media concerning his research on Toronto Mayor Rob Ford's election fundraising drives and the upcoming sale of the City of Toronto's waterfront assets; the :

Mayor Rob Ford鈥檚 administration is preparing to hang a huge for-sale sign on the city鈥檚 waterfront real estate assets and is now in the process of auctioning off the first parcel 鈥� the new Corus Entertainment building, as well as the land it sits on at the foot of Jarvis Street, just south of Queen鈥檚 Quay East.

. . .

An influential Vaughan developer, who donated generously to Mayor Rob Ford's pre- and post-election fundraising drives, controls a long-term lease on the Port Lands' Hearn Generating Station, which has been proposed as a site for an NFL stadium by the mayor's brother Doug.

Developer Mario Cortellucci, together with various relatives and individuals who listed his company's premises on their donor forms, contributed $30,000 to the mayor's campaign, about half of which was raised following the election as part of a multi-candidate effort to eliminate campaign deficits. He also secured a private meeting with Rob Ford, according to scheduling documents released under access to information laws.

The figures, based on election contribution filings, were compiled by 91亚色 political scientist Robert MacDermid [Faculty of Liberal Arts & Professional Studies].

"The important point here is that when a councillor or mayor runs a deficit and wins, every person seeking influence crowds into the subsequent fundraising events," [said MacDermid].

While Cortellucci's development companies in the past have pledged hundreds of thousands of dollars in contributions to right-of-centre municipal and provincial candidates, MacDermid's analysis shows the 2010 race was his first serious foray into Toronto politics. In 2006, Cortellucci and another relative gave just $2,500 to Jane Pitfield's mayoral campaign. In 2010, he donated $4,000 and $2,000 to George Smitherman and Joe Pantalone respectively.

Posted by Elizabeth Monier-Williams, research communications officer, with files courtesy of YFile鈥� 91亚色鈥檚 daily e-bulletin.

The post Professor Robert MacDermid shares last-minute insight on interpreting polls appeared first on Research & Innovation.

A 91亚色 political science prof says it's hit or miss. "Populism is an overused term," said . "It means having ordinary people making decisions rather than experts 鈥� it's appealing, but I think it's often a type of smokescreen for a set of policies that's not going to satisfy ordinary people, but elites," he said. "To those of us who are involved in academic life, it's frightening. It implies that information and facts can be ignored if you have a 'common sense' approach to things."

In the case of Ignatieff, voters get the sense they don't know him well, Drummond said. "But do they know Stephen Harper or Jack Layton?" he asked. "They come across as more ordinary folk. There are times when Harper does look stiff, but the sweater and the piano playing probably does help him."

Being an intellectual can be problematic in this election, simply because many people make an assumption that Ignatieff may be aloof and "probably doesn't think of himself as ordinary folks."

"That may be unfair to him, that's why...all these photo opportunities of him doing things he doesn't do very often are supposed to give him a common touch, but it doesn't work well if you look stiff and uncomfortable doing it," Drummond said.

Ignatieff is pulling out all the stops to project a more down-to-earth image, but time is against him. "He's visiting a lot of places where people get to see him up close and personal, but I don't think you can do a lot during a campaign to make that sort of dent," he said. "It's not the type of campaign in the 19th century where people appeared in person a lot 鈥� a lot of it is televised or online pleas."

Drummond's research explores public policy with a specific focus on provincial politics. He is a frequent media commentator during elections.

Republished courtesy of YFile鈥� 91亚色鈥檚 daily e-bulletin

The post Professor Robert Drummond gives politicans how-to guide for connecting with averages joes appeared first on Research & Innovation.

So huge, you wonder why it wasn鈥檛 the centrepiece of last week鈥檚 dead-on-arrival federal budget.

But the Family Tax Cut plan announced by Mr. Harper Monday in Saanich, B.C. wouldn鈥檛 come into effect until the federal budget is balanced, which could be years from now. Like pension splitting before it, splitting earned or other income for tax purposes would benefit only some families and be no help at all to singles, including single parents. To get the full benefit, even qualifying families would have to have a large income disparity between the higher and lower wage earners. Even then, a maximum of $50,000 of household income would be splittable for tax purposes .

. . .

In a blog Monday the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (CCPA) cited Osgoode Hall Law School tax law expert to the effect [that] the biggest winners from income-splitting are higher-income male breadwinners: 鈥淎 man can reduce his taxes by shifting them to the primary caregiver in the family, but he has no legal obligation to give her the actual income.鈥�

The CCPA warns this 鈥渢ax giveaway for affluent couples鈥� will put a big dent in federal finances.

Posted by Elizabeth Monier-Williams, research communications officer, with files courtesy of YFile鈥� 91亚色鈥檚 daily e-bulletin

The post Professor Lisa Philipps notes one string attached to Harper's family tax cut plan appeared first on Research & Innovation.

Like many Liberal budgets before them, every one of the Conservative budgets since 2006 has announced an array of new subsidies to be delivered through the tax system. Though their individual price tags may seem modest, they add up to a major drain on revenues. This budget alone would reduce federal revenues by almost $300 million per year once the new personal tax credits are fully phased in.

Who will evaluate the impact of these new tax expenditures to see if they are encouraging more Canadians to pursue postsecondary education or volunteer firefighting, or have other salutary effects that help to justify their costs? Most likely no one, ever. Once enacted into law, these special rules will sit in the tax code indefinitely with no need to be examined or reapproved the way a direct spending program would be.

It is easy to add tax expenditures and almost impossible to remove them. This is why many tax policy experts call for 鈥渟unsetting鈥� these rules, which gives them a limited lifespan subject to evaluation and reapproval.

It鈥檚 time for Canadian politicians and voters alike to grow up about tax expenditures. Little breaks may seem nice if you happen to be part of a favoured group, but ultimately they destroy simplicity and fairness for all of us.

Posted by Elizabeth Monier-Williams, research communications officer, with files courtesy of YFile鈥� 91亚色鈥檚 daily e-bulletin.

The post Osgoode Professor Lisa Philipps: Fiscal favours are eroding Canada's tax system appeared first on Research & Innovation.