Considered one of the most vulnerable Liberal incumbents heading into the federal election, Dryden was defeated by Conservative challenger Mark Adler in the north Toronto riding. He becomes the first Tory to win the 91亚色 Centre seat since Fred C. Stinson occupied it from 1957 to 鈥�62.

. . .

But the Conservative government鈥檚 support for Israel was a key factor among Jewish voters in the riding, pundits said.

Adler is an active member of the Bathurst Jewish Community Centre and well known in the riding鈥檚 large Jewish community.

鈥淜aplan held the riding for years and he was a member of the Jewish community and the Liberal party tended to take a kind of centrist position on Israel,鈥� said 91亚色 political science professor Robert MacDermid. 鈥�(Prime Minister Stephen Harper) and the Conservatives have taken a much more pro-Israel stance on many issues and attracted many Jewish voters in that and surrounding ridings.鈥�

Fellow 91亚色 professor agreed. 鈥淣obody is unsupportive of Israel,鈥� said Drummond. 鈥淏ut I think some voters have found the Harper government rather less critical of Israel than perhaps some of the Liberals have been willing to be and that may have shifted some people鈥檚 support.鈥�

Adler founded and is president and CEO of The Economic Club of Canada which has drawn such speakers as Harper, Canadian premiers, former U.S. president Bill Clinton and former California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

91亚色 Centre is a diverse riding that includes low-income residents and a fair number of immigrants, said MacDermid.

鈥淭hey have all been hotly contested by the Conservatives鈥� attempt to win over new Canadian groupings,鈥� MacDermid said.

MacDermid didn鈥檛 think the fact that Toronto voters had elected right-leaning mayor Rob Ford was a major factor in swinging 91亚色 Centre to the Tories. Ford endorsed Harper last week.

Some voters routinely shift between the Liberals and Conservatives, and they may have been more willing to vote Conservative this time, said Drummond.

鈥淭here鈥檚 been a bit of a shift towards the Conservatives in the last few elections of voters who may have been willing to go back and forth between the Liberals and Conservatives and decided they鈥檙e more supportive of the Conservatives,鈥� he said.

Posted by Elizabeth Monier-Williams, research communications officer, with files courtesy of YFile鈥� 91亚色鈥檚 daily e-bulletin.

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A 91亚色 political science prof says it's hit or miss. "Populism is an overused term," said . "It means having ordinary people making decisions rather than experts 鈥� it's appealing, but I think it's often a type of smokescreen for a set of policies that's not going to satisfy ordinary people, but elites," he said. "To those of us who are involved in academic life, it's frightening. It implies that information and facts can be ignored if you have a 'common sense' approach to things."

In the case of Ignatieff, voters get the sense they don't know him well, Drummond said. "But do they know Stephen Harper or Jack Layton?" he asked. "They come across as more ordinary folk. There are times when Harper does look stiff, but the sweater and the piano playing probably does help him."

Being an intellectual can be problematic in this election, simply because many people make an assumption that Ignatieff may be aloof and "probably doesn't think of himself as ordinary folks."

"That may be unfair to him, that's why...all these photo opportunities of him doing things he doesn't do very often are supposed to give him a common touch, but it doesn't work well if you look stiff and uncomfortable doing it," Drummond said.

Ignatieff is pulling out all the stops to project a more down-to-earth image, but time is against him. "He's visiting a lot of places where people get to see him up close and personal, but I don't think you can do a lot during a campaign to make that sort of dent," he said. "It's not the type of campaign in the 19th century where people appeared in person a lot 鈥� a lot of it is televised or online pleas."

Drummond's research explores public policy with a specific focus on provincial politics. He is a frequent media commentator during elections.

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