Considered one of the most vulnerable Liberal incumbents heading into the federal election, Dryden was defeated by Conservative challenger Mark Adler in the north Toronto riding. He becomes the first Tory to win the 91亚色 Centre seat since Fred C. Stinson occupied it from 1957 to 鈥�62.

. . .

But the Conservative government鈥檚 support for Israel was a key factor among Jewish voters in the riding, pundits said.

Adler is an active member of the Bathurst Jewish Community Centre and well known in the riding鈥檚 large Jewish community.

鈥淜aplan held the riding for years and he was a member of the Jewish community and the Liberal party tended to take a kind of centrist position on Israel,鈥� said 91亚色 political science professor Robert MacDermid. 鈥�(Prime Minister Stephen Harper) and the Conservatives have taken a much more pro-Israel stance on many issues and attracted many Jewish voters in that and surrounding ridings.鈥�

Fellow 91亚色 professor agreed. 鈥淣obody is unsupportive of Israel,鈥� said Drummond. 鈥淏ut I think some voters have found the Harper government rather less critical of Israel than perhaps some of the Liberals have been willing to be and that may have shifted some people鈥檚 support.鈥�

Adler founded and is president and CEO of The Economic Club of Canada which has drawn such speakers as Harper, Canadian premiers, former U.S. president Bill Clinton and former California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

91亚色 Centre is a diverse riding that includes low-income residents and a fair number of immigrants, said MacDermid.

鈥淭hey have all been hotly contested by the Conservatives鈥� attempt to win over new Canadian groupings,鈥� MacDermid said.

MacDermid didn鈥檛 think the fact that Toronto voters had elected right-leaning mayor Rob Ford was a major factor in swinging 91亚色 Centre to the Tories. Ford endorsed Harper last week.

Some voters routinely shift between the Liberals and Conservatives, and they may have been more willing to vote Conservative this time, said Drummond.

鈥淭here鈥檚 been a bit of a shift towards the Conservatives in the last few elections of voters who may have been willing to go back and forth between the Liberals and Conservatives and decided they鈥檙e more supportive of the Conservatives,鈥� he said.

Posted by Elizabeth Monier-Williams, research communications officer, with files courtesy of YFile鈥� 91亚色鈥檚 daily e-bulletin.

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Anyone transmitting the results of a poll has to include the name of the sponsor and the company that did the poll, which will help readers determine if the poll is objective.

Readers should also have access to the date when the poll was conducted and the size of the sample that was consulted to test reliability.

Finally, organizations have to disclose the margin of error, one of the most important pieces of information, according to Robert MacDermid, a political science professor at 91亚色.

If a poll says Jack Layton has 20 per cent of Canadians supporting him, but there is a margin of error of +/- 3 per cent, that means the support is actually between 23 and 17 per cent, he explained.

. . .

Polls aren鈥檛 the only way to gauge progress, according to MacDermid, who uses Layton鈥檚 recent rise in Quebec as an example.

鈥淭here are all sorts of evidence that people, especially in Quebec, are considering voting for Jack,鈥� he said. 鈥淵ou鈥檇 report these other things; that he is spending all his time there; that 1000 people showed up at a rally; and that other political parties are attacking him.鈥�

And polls aren鈥檛 the only way to determine how you want to vote, MacDermid says. Voters should consider the party platforms and what the leaders say about the issues that matter to the individual voter.

MacDermid was also in the media concerning his research on Toronto Mayor Rob Ford's election fundraising drives and the upcoming sale of the City of Toronto's waterfront assets; the :

Mayor Rob Ford鈥檚 administration is preparing to hang a huge for-sale sign on the city鈥檚 waterfront real estate assets and is now in the process of auctioning off the first parcel 鈥� the new Corus Entertainment building, as well as the land it sits on at the foot of Jarvis Street, just south of Queen鈥檚 Quay East.

. . .

An influential Vaughan developer, who donated generously to Mayor Rob Ford's pre- and post-election fundraising drives, controls a long-term lease on the Port Lands' Hearn Generating Station, which has been proposed as a site for an NFL stadium by the mayor's brother Doug.

Developer Mario Cortellucci, together with various relatives and individuals who listed his company's premises on their donor forms, contributed $30,000 to the mayor's campaign, about half of which was raised following the election as part of a multi-candidate effort to eliminate campaign deficits. He also secured a private meeting with Rob Ford, according to scheduling documents released under access to information laws.

The figures, based on election contribution filings, were compiled by 91亚色 political scientist Robert MacDermid [Faculty of Liberal Arts & Professional Studies].

"The important point here is that when a councillor or mayor runs a deficit and wins, every person seeking influence crowds into the subsequent fundraising events," [said MacDermid].

While Cortellucci's development companies in the past have pledged hundreds of thousands of dollars in contributions to right-of-centre municipal and provincial candidates, MacDermid's analysis shows the 2010 race was his first serious foray into Toronto politics. In 2006, Cortellucci and another relative gave just $2,500 to Jane Pitfield's mayoral campaign. In 2010, he donated $4,000 and $2,000 to George Smitherman and Joe Pantalone respectively.

Posted by Elizabeth Monier-Williams, research communications officer, with files courtesy of YFile鈥� 91亚色鈥檚 daily e-bulletin.

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The holdouts aren鈥檛 breaking any rules, but they are deviating from a practice that has become the norm in megacity elections, wrote the Globe. In 2006 and 2003, the top candidates for mayor disclosed their contribution lists before ballots were cast.

鈥淚 think they鈥檙e behind the curve on their understanding of voters鈥� interest in this,鈥� said Robert MacDermid, a professor in 91亚色鈥檚 Faculty of Liberal Arts & Professional Studies who studies municipal campaign finance. 鈥淚f we could poll people on this issue, I think we would find a large majority in favour of telling people where the money comes from before the election happens. I think maybe these three candidates haven鈥檛 appreciated that.

鈥淚鈥檓 perplexed at why it would make much difference before or after,鈥� MacDermid said. 鈥淭hey [donors] know that their names are going to be made public afterward if they contributed more than $100. What difference would it make?鈥�

MacDermid, who has extensive research experience in municipal politics, has lobbied for a ban on corporate funding of municipal election campaigns:

He was also quoted in Sept. 18:

Another proposal worthy of implementation is ensuring early disclosure of campaign donations. Voters should be able to assess the weight of donations from developers, business, trade unions and other special interest groups before the election, not several months later.

鈥淚t鈥檚 better to know beforehand where the money comes from,鈥� said Robert MacDermid, a political scientist in 91亚色鈥檚 Faculty of Liberal Arts & Professional Studies. 鈥淎 person should be able to look and see if a candidate is totally supported by the development industry, then judge accordingly.鈥�

Transparent and timely access to donation records -- as well as preventing undue influence by powerful groups -- will give voters a reason to cast their ballots.

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